Slide 1 | Home | Contact |
Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 1 of 8






Translated to HTML from a PowerPoint Presentation

Menu


Next




Slide 2
Prelude to the Presentation



"A 'conspiracy theory' no longer means an event explained by a conspiracy. Instead, it now means any explanation, or even a fact, that is out of step with the government's explanation and that of its media pimps."


— Dr. Paul Craig Roberts
former United States Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy
& editor of the Wall Street Journal




Notes

1. Source: Roberts, P.C., 2011. 9/11 and Orwellian Redefinition of 'Conspiracy Theory'. Center for Research on Globalization. Published online at: globalresearch.ca June 20, 2011.

2. See also: Hard Evidence: Exposing the Truth. September-October (2011) Edition. Volume 11, Number 5, p.33.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 3
Outline of the Presentation

  • 1. A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History
  • 2. The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie'
  • 3. The Starting Point – The Debate on Climate Change is Over – or is it?
  • 4. The Politics Driving the AGW Debate – The Club of Rome
  • 5. The Modelling behind the AGW Argument – Good Science or 'Convenient Fiction'?
  • 6. The Science behind the Global Warming Debate
  • 7. The Precautionary Principle – Applicable or Not?
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 4
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History



  • There is no disputing the fact of "climate change" – climate is constantly changing


  • Climate history is replete with such changes, e.g., the Roman Warming Period, the colder and drier Dark Ages, the Mediaeval Warming Period and, more recently, the Little Ice Age (comprising the Maunder and Dalton Minimums)


  • On a smaller scale, climate also embraces short-term cyclical patterns of change – swings between moderately warm and moderately cool periods


  • We are currently entering a cooling phase, after a prolonged period of warming following the Little Ice Age


  • The cooling phase commenced in 1998 (or perhaps earlier)
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 5
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History



  • The earth was subjected to a global cataclysm – the biblical Flood – approx. 4,350 years ago (Gen. 6-9)


  • Noah, his wife and three sons and their respective wives were the sole human survivors of this cataclysm (2 Peter 2:5)


  • The earth underwent great upheaval both during and in the millennium following the Flood


  • The primary trigger for the Flood was the bursting open of the "fountains of the great deep" (Gen. 7:11)


  • These "fountains" were subterranean in nature and, therefore, embraced the release of vast quantities of very hot, juvenile water
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 6
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History



  • Evidence for the existence of these subterranean reservoirs can still be seen today:
  • Fissures in the sea bed and the release of juvenile water

  • Fissures in the crustal rocks of the earth, e.g., in the form of geysers in geothermal regions of the earth

  • The release of huge amounts of super-heated water raised the temperature of the pre-Flood oceans


  • This warming of the oceans led to a post-Flood "Ice Age" of duration somewhere between 400 and 700 years

Notes

1. Oard, M., 1990. An Ice Age Caused by the Genesis Flood. ICR Technical Monograph, 243 pages. Published by Institute for Creation Research, El Cajon, California.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 7
Modelling of Anthropogenic Global Warming
& the Corruption of Modern Science

     
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History
================================================

Notes

1. Lady Knox Geyser, Rotorua (New Zealand).
2. Wairakei Geothermal Power Station in the North Island of New Zealand.
3. "Old Faiithful" Geyser at Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming (USA).
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 8
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History
Liquid CO2 bubbles emanating
from an underwater volcanic vent

Hydrothermal vents (black smokers)
almost 10,000 feet down
on the mid-Atlantic ridge
north of the Azores islands

 

Notes

1. Source: www.iceagenow.com/Yet_more_deep-sea_hydrothermal_vents.htm 10th August 2011.

2. Source: wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/11/undersea-volcanoes-might-be-more-common-than-previously-thought.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 9
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History

Notes

1. A "black smoker" venting in the Cayman Trough. Courtesy National Geographic (published on the 11th April 2010). The vent was discovered at a depth of 5,000 metres below the surface of the Caribbean Sea.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 10
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History



  • We read a first-hand account of this post-Flood "Ice Age" in the book of Job. An early post-Flood patriarch, Job lived about 1900 B.C. The writer of the book (possibly his friend, Elihu) wrote:
  • Out of the south [i.e., the tropics] comes the storm, and out of the north [i.e., the polar regions] the cold. From the breath of God ice is made, And the expanse of the waters is frozen. And with moisture he loads thick clouds. (Job 37:10,11a)

    From whose womb has come the ice? And the frost of heaven, who has given it birth? Water becomes hard like stone, And the surface of the deep is imprisoned. (Job 38:29,30)


Notes

1. The earth's hydrological cycle is encapsulated in these passages.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 11
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History


  • The Psalmist wrote: "Thou didst cover it [the earth] with the deep [Flood waters] as with a garment. The waters were standing above the mountains. ..... Thou didst set a boundary that they may not pass over; That they may not return to cover the earth." (Psalm 104:6,9)


  • This infers that there was a rise in sea level towards a boundary pre-determined by God


  • The rise in sea level took place as the post-Flood "Ice Age" dissipated and after the events described in Ps. 104:8


  • This led to the eventual submergence of continental land-bridges


  • Note that the act of establishing the boundary is expressed as a past event and, therefore, had to have been attained prior to the Psalmist putting pen to paper.

Notes

1. The post-Flood Ice Age saw dramatic changes in sea level – with the average sea level at glacial maximum approximately 130 metres (400 feet) lower than today's levels (mean sea level).

2. The sea water was, for a time, locked away in vast continental ice sheets and greatly expanded Arctic and Antarctic sheets of sea ice.

3. This reduction in sea level exposed land bridges, which assisted with the re-colonisation of the earth after the Flood and confusion of tongues at Babel.

4. Post-Flood mankind survived (i.e., adapted to) these massive climatological changes – in spite of a lack of technology.
Menu

Prev
Next




12..13
The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie'



The 'Big Lie' [German: Große Lüge or Grosse Lüge] is a propaganda tool or technique.


"... in the big lie there is always a certain force of credibility; because the broad masses of the nation are always more easily corrupted in the deeper strata of their emotional nature than subconsciously or voluntarily; and thus in the primitive simplicity of their minds they more readily fall victims to the big lie than the small lie, since they themselves often tell small lies in little matters, but would be ashamed to resort to large-scale falsehoods."

— Adolph Hitler (Mein Kampf, vol. 1, ch. X)

Question:
    Does the 'Big Lie' have any relevance to the science behind Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW)?

Notes

1. Murphy, J., 1939. English translation of Mein Kampf, by Adolph Hitler (the German version having been published in 1925).
Menu

Prev
Next




14..15
AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not?


"Nobody is interested in solutions if they don't think there's a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous [global warming] is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis."

— Al Gore, May 9, 2006, Grist Interview



If the presentation were based on 'facts' there would be no disputing the science, after all, "The debate is over. There is no longer any debate in the scientific community about this [i.e., the science behind anthropogenic global warming.]"

— Al Gore, quoted in An Inconvenient Truth

Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 16
AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not?


Question:
    Is there scientific consensus when it comes to the facts behind anthropogenic global warming (AGW)?

    Is the debate truly over?
Answer:
    Certainly not.

    In fact, the debate was never allowed to start.





Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 17
AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not?


In an email to Michael Mann dated July 8, 2004 with respect to two papers which expressed dissenting points of view to those supporting the AGW view in an impending IPCC report, Phil Jones stated: "Kevin [Trenberth] and I will keep them out somehow – even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!"

— [email # 1089318616.txt]



In an earlier email to Phil Jones dated March 11, 2003 and following publication of a paper by Soon and Baliunas in the peer-reviewed journal, Climate Research, Michael Mann stated: "I told Mike [McCracken] that I believed our only choice was to ignore this paper. They've already achieved what they wanted – the claim of a peer-reviewed paper. There is nothing we can do about that now, but the last thing we want to do is bring attention to this paper, which will be ignored by the community on the whole ..."

— [email # 1047388489.txt]

Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 18
AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not?

Notes

1. Willie Soon and Sallie Baliunas are both PhDs (Harvard University) and astrophysicists at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

2. Their paper – published January 31, 2003 - concluded "The picture emerges from many localities that both the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm epoch are widespread and near synchronous, ..... Overall, the 20th Century does not contain the warmest anomaly of the past millennium in most of the proxy records. ..... However, the proxies show that the 20th Century is not unusually warm or extreme."

3. Refer to: Soon, W., and Baliunas, S., 2003. Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1,000 years. Climate Research, vol. 23, pp.89-110
Menu

Prev
Next




19..20
The Politics Driving the AGW Argument



"The IPCC from the beginning was given the licence to use what-ever methods would be necessary to provide 'evidence' that carbon dioxide increases are harming the climate, even if this involves manipulation of dubious data and using peoples' opinions instead of science to 'prove' their case. ... Comments on the IPCC drafts were rejected without explanation, and attempts to pursue the matter were frustrated indefinitely."

— Dr. Vincent R. Gray, in a comment to Gary Novac
(of the Science is Broken website)



"They sometimes take notice of your comments. I mean, they don't take notice of mine because most of the time I don't agree with what they are saying. ... The IPCC is a political organisation, set up by the United Nations to provide 'evidence' to support the framework convention on climate change, which has been signed by governments. It is entirely political.

— Friends of Science interview with Dr. Vincent R. Gray


Notes

1. The interview with Dr. Gray can be seen on YouTube via http://www.iceagenow.com

2. Source: http://www.friendsofscience.org
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 21
Quashing of Dissenting Views



Dr. Vincent R. Gray

  • New Zealander by birth and specialist in coal chemistry.


  • Founder of the NZ Climate Science Coalition.


  • Expert Reviewer on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4, 2007).


  • Dr. Gray provided 1,898 comments on the AR4.


  • Nearly all of his comments were rejected, without any explanation or justification for the rejection.

Notes

1. Gray, V.R., 2010. Excerpt under the heading "IPCC. Call it propaganda, not science." at http://nov55.com/ipcc.html
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 21a
Why the IPCC Should Be Disbanded

  • This new book by Canadian journalist, Donna Laframboise, is a damning revelation of the true nature and workings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
  • While the IPCC has insisted that the world's most eminent scientists constitute an unquestionable authority on climate change, this brilliant piece of forensic journalism proves otherwise.
  • There is no longer any room for doubt that science, and scientists themselves, are being deliberately corrupted by a political process.
  • Or as Jeremy says: WUWT, October 19, 2011 at 10:53 am
    "... Donna's book tears apart the IPCC with its OWN rhetoric!
    It is impossible to refute any of Donna's claims because she simply takes what the IPCC and its promoters say it does and compares it to what it ACTUALLY does."
     


Notes

1. Click on the image to visit Donna's site and purchase the book.
Prev
Next



Slide 22
The Numbers Game — AGW Advocates vs. Skeptics



  • The MSM is guilty of creating the impression that the vast majority of scientists support the AGW hypothesis – that there is a strong consensus that AGW is real.


  • Of particular importance in conveying this view is the intellectual weight accorded the IPCC's 2,500 scientific expert reviewers, 800 contributing authors and 400 lead authors for its 4th Assessment Report – a total of 3,700 in all.


  • However, the weight accorded the IPCC's panel of experts is grossly overstated, for a number of reasons ...
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 23
The Composition of the IPCC 'Scientific' Panel



  • The IPCC places great emphasis on its panel of scientific expert reviewers and contributing and lead authors associated with the assembly and publication of Assessment Report 4 (AR4)


  • AR1 (1990), AR2 (1992) and AR3 (1995) were followed by a 12-year hiatus preceding AR4 (2007). AR5 is expected in 2013.


  • Each Assessment Report comprises 3 volumes – collated by separate working groups (WG1, WG2 and WG3)
  • • Science behind AGW expounded by WG1
    • Impacts, adaptations and mitigations of Climate Change
       – a mix of science, environmentalism and politics – undertaken by WG2
    • WG3 focuses on the economic and social dimensions of Climate Change
       – economics, social sciences and politics come in to play

Notes

1. With respect to the WG1 report, there are significant numbers of government (civil servants) and environmentalists amongst the authors and reviewers.

2. The keynote section of the report (Chapter 9) appears to have been authored by as few as 53 individuals (ref. McLean, J., 2009.) — The IPCC can't count its "expert scientists" – Author and reviewer numbers are wrong. Published January 18, 2009.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 24
The Composition of the IPCC 'Scientific' Panel

The makeup of WG1 for the 2007 (4th) Assessment Report

  • Many of the so-called experts also doubled as reviewers
  • • Annex II lists the contributors to WG1 of AR4 – 619 in all
    • Annex III lists the reviewers of the WG1 Draft – 624 in all
    • Of the reviewers listed, no less than 184 were also contributors
    • Collectively, this numbers (619 + 624 - 184) = 1,059
  • The key chapter in WG1 report is Chapter 9 – Understanding and Attributing Climate Change


  • Chapter 9 authors (only 53); Chapter 9 reviewers (only 3)

Notes

1. Hegerl, G.C., F. W. Zwiers, P. Braconnot, N.P. Gillett, Y. Luo, J.A. Marengo Orsini, N. Nicholls, J.E. Penner and P.A. Stott, 2007: Understanding and Attributing Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

2. McLean, J., 2007. An analysis of the review of the IPCC 4AR WG1 Report. The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, pp. 5 (Table 3) and 10 (Table 6). Published on-line by the Science & Public Policy Institute (SPPI) in September 2007 and updated on October 24, 2007.

3. McLean noted that the first draft of Chapter 9 embraced 56 authors (including lead authors and contributing authors) and a total of 62 reviewers (comprising 8 Government reviewers, 7 author reviewers and 47 other reviewers). By the time of publication, the figures for authors and reviewers had dropped to 53 and 3 respectively – a total of 56.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 25
The Composition of the IPCC 'Scientific' Panel



  • Many of the reviewers and some of the contributors expressed dissenting views to those of the IPCC – therefore, the number of 1,059 is not representative of a broad scientific consensus for AGW and well short of the UN's claims of 4,000 scientists and expert reviewers


  • With respect to the key chapter of the WG1 Report, the total number of authors (contributing and lead) and reviewers was only 56!


  • Let's contrast this against those expressing dissident (skeptical) views

Notes

1. Amongst the expert reviewers of the IPCC's 4th Assessment Report were: William Kininmonth, Stephen McIntyre, Dr. Ross McKitrick, Kiminori Itoh, Dr. Vincent Gray, Dr. John Christy, Dr. Patrick Michaels – to name but a few.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 26
The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008)



  • Initiated by Prof. Frederick Seitz, former President of the United States Academy of Sciences, past Professor of Physics at the University of Illinois and Rockefeller University and a pioneer in the development of solid state physics


  • 31,486 United States (only) scientists – all with earned academic degrees in a field of science


  • 9,029 of these in possession of earned PhDs


  • High proportion of scientists with degrees in relevant areas of expertise, e.g., earth sciences (geology, petrology), astrophysics, atmospheric physics, meteorology, climatology, environmental sciences

Notes

1. The Global Warming Petition Project is also known as the Oregon Petition.
Menu

Prev
Next




27..28
The Purpose of the "Petition Project"



  • The purpose of the Petition Project is to demonstrate that the claim of "settled science" and an overwhelming "consensus" in favour of the hypothesis of human-caused global warming and consequent climatological damage is wrong. No such consensus or settled science exists. As indicated by the petition text and signatory list, a very large number of American scientists reject this hypothesis.


  • Publicists at the United Nations, Mr. Al Gore, and their supporters frequently claim that only a few "skeptics" remain – skeptics who are still unconvinced about the existence of a catastrophic human-caused global warming emergency.


  • It is evident that 31,486 Americans with university degrees in science – including 9,029 PhDs, are not "a few." Moreover, from the clear and strong petition statement that they have signed, it is evident that these 31,486 American scientists are not "skeptics."


  • These scientists are instead convinced that the human-caused global warming hypothesis is without scientific validity and that government action on the basis of this hypothesis would unnecessarily and counter-productively damage both human prosperity and the natural environment of the Earth.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 29
Institute of Physics (2010)



  • Worldwide membership of 36,000


  • Expressed concern regarding the Climategate scandal and the behaviour of the CRU at the University of East Anglia


  • Issued a formal statement on 27.02.2010 expressing these concerns, including various issues including the use of tree-ring "proxies," the lack of independent peer-review of published articles by the CRU and the data sets used in the development of climate models by that organisation


  • Formal submission to the Parliamentary Select Committee into the Climategate scandal


  • Questioned the independence of the Parliamentary Select Committee charged with examining the purported scandal
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 29a
Institute of Physics (2010)

Notes

1. The draft submission was approved by the IoP's Science Board and submitted on February 10 (2010). The thrust of the society's concerns was the need for openness in the climate-change debate.

2. Attempts to force the society to recant on its submission followed. Criticism was principally from several scientists with vested interests in AGW research -- that is, they were on the payroll of Government.

3. In a carefully worded statement, the IoP responded that it "strongly rebuts" accusations of "being overly influenced by one 'climate-change sceptic' on the energy sub-group, and then of a lack of openness about the authorship of our evidence." It went on to add: "The individual in question had no significant influence on the preparation of the evidence. Responsibility for the evidence rests with the Science Board, whose members' names are openly available on our website."

4. O'Sullivan, J., 2010. Devastating Report: The Institute of Physics condemns junk climate science. Source: WUWT dated February 27, 2010. Institute of Physics on Climategate. Source: WUWT dated February 27, 2010.

5. Adam, D., 2010. Institute of Physics forced to clarify submission to climate emails inquiry. Published in the Guardian newspaper on March 2, 2010.

6. Banks, M., 2010. Concerns raised over Institute of Physics climate submission. Source: IoP's own physicsworld.com website: physicsworld.com/cws/news/41965.

7. See also: Watts, A., 2010. IOP fires back over criticism of their submission to Parliament. Published on line at WUWT on March 13, 2010.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 30
The Royal Society of Chemistry (2010)



  • A professional society with a membership of 42,000


  • Submission to the Parliamentary Select Committee investigating the Climategate fraud (February 2010)


  • The Society argued that: "... the benefits of scientific data being made available and thus open to scrutiny outweigh the perceived risks. To this end, scientific information should be made available on request as outlined in the Freedom of Information Act."


  • Full submission outlining concerns of the Society in relation to the actions of the CRU at UEA can be found at:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com...royal-society-of-chemistry-backs-sharing-of-data
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 31
The Royal Statistical Society (2010)


  • Joined the Institute of Physics and the Royal Society of Chemistry in February 2010 with a formal submission to the Parliamentary Select Committee into the Climategate scandal


  • A global membership of 7,000



APEGGA in Alberta, Canada (2008)


  • A survey of 51,000 members of the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists and Geophysicists of Alberta (APEGGA, March 6, 2008) revealed that 68% of members disagreed with the statement that "... the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled."

Notes

1. Other dissenting views were expressed in the Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change (2005) and the earlier Statement by Atmospheric Scientists on Greenhouse Warming (1992).
Menu

Prev
Next




32..33
A Statement to Ponder ...


"No matter if the science of global warming is all phony ... climate change provides the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world."

— Christine Stewart, former Canadian Minister of the Environment,
in an interview in the Calgary Herald, in 1998

Question:        Does this former minister know something that we aren't supposed to know?

Notes

1. Stewart, C., 1998. Quoted in: Calgary Herald (Alberta, Canada) and dated December 14, 1998.

2. See also: Terrence Corcoran article – Global Warming: the Real Agenda – in Financial Post (Canada) dated December 26, 1998.

3. Christine Stewart's formal qualifications are a Bachelor of Science (Nursing) degree.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 34
Another Statement to Ponder ...


     "What we've got to do in energy conservation is to ride this global warming issue. Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, to have approached global warming as if it is real means energy conservation, so we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic and environmental policy."

— Timothy Wirth, President of the UN Foundation
and member of The Club of Rome


Notes

1. Statement made by Timothy Wirth whilst U.S. Democrat Senator for Colorado in 1988.
2. Quoted in: Fumento, M., 1993. Science Under Siege, (p. 362).

3. Timothy Wirth was instrumental in getting the U.S. Congress to listen to Dr. James E. Hansen's theory of made-made global warming. He was also instrumental in staging the presentation on a hot summer's day and in a room with compromised air-conditioning – to sell the story to the press and attendees.

4. Wirth is now advocating that there is a need to "... undertake an aggressive program to go after those who are among the deniers ..." So much for subjecting the theory to the rigours of scientific debate. He wants to stamp the debate out altogether.

5. Source (for notes 3 and 4): Watts , A., 2011. Bring it, Mr. Wirth – a challenge. WUWT dated 25.06.2011. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/06/25/bring-it-mr-wirth-a-challenge
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 35
Another Statement to Ponder ...

Question:
    So what is The Club of Rome agenda driving the global warming issue?
       Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 36
The Club of Rome — A Brief Background



  • Most of the aforementioned quotes are from members of The Club of Rome (CoR)


  • Formed in 1968 – in existence for 42 years


  • An elite body of academics, politicians and members of royalty and aristocracy working to a Socialist International agenda


  • Focus on over-population, the need for wealth re-distribution, global governance and environmental issues


  • Responsible for the publication of four landmark documents: Limits to Growth (1972), Mankind at the Turning Point (1974), Goals for Mankind (1976) and, more recently, The First Global Revolution (1991)
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 37
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome



"The common enemy of humanity is man. In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill. All of these dangers are caused by human intervention, and it is only through changed attitudes and behaviour that we can overcome. The real enemy then, is humanity itself."

— Alexander King, 1991. Co-founder of The Club of Rome,
The First Global Revolution, Published by The Club of Rome
Pantheon Books (New York) edition, p.115

Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 38
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome



"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our [Club of Rome and Bilderberg] meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But the world is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march forward towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national auto-determination practised in past centuries."

— David Rockefeller, Sr. in an address
at the Bilderberg Conference, June 1991


Notes

1. This address was made by Rockefeller at the 1991 Bilderberg Conference (6th-9th June, 1991) in Baden Baden, Germany.

2. David Rockefeller is a founding member of The Club of Rome.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 39
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome



"The threat of environmental crisis will be the 'international disaster key' that will unlock the New World Order."

— Mikhail Gorbachev, former President of the Soviet Union
and a member of The Club of Rome



"... the resultant ideal sustainable population is hence more than 500 million , but less than one billion."

— Erwin Laszlo, 1977. Goals for Mankind,
published by The Club of Rome


Notes

1. Gorbachev, M., 1996. In: A Special Report: The Wildlands Project Unleashes it's War on Mankind.

2. Laszlo, E., 1977. Goals for Mankind: On the New Horizons for a Global Community. Published by the Club of Rome.

3. The current population of the earth is approximately 6.8 billion.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 40
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome



"Isn't the only hope for the planet that the industrialised civilizations collapse? Isn't it our responsibility to bring that about? ..... The concept of national sovereignty has been an immutable, indeed sacred, principle of international relations. It is a principle which will yield only slowly and reluctantly to the new imperatives of global environmental cooperation. It is simply not feasible for sovereignty to be exercised unilaterally by individual nation states, however powerful. The global community must be assured of environmental security."

— Maurice Strong, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP),
AL Gore's mentor and Executive Member of The Club of Rome

Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 41
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome


  • Maurice Strong accrued considerable wealth in oil – as Vice President of Finance of Dome Petroleum at the age of 25, President of Power Corporation of Canada (1961-66) and CEO of Petro-Canada (1976-78)


  • Resides in the Peoples' Republic of China


  • Honorary Professor at the University of Peking (Beijing)
      

Notes

1. The man behind the United Nation's 'Oil for Food' scandal and the architect of the UN's Sustainable Development plans (or Agenda 21).

2. An avowed socialist, he fled to Communist China upon threat of imminent charges for nefarious activities associated with the 'Oil for Food' scandal and associated monetary bribes he received from Jordan.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 42
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome



"It doesn't matter what is true, it only matters what people believe is true."

— Paul Watson, Co-founder of Greenpeace
and member of The Club of Rome



Incidentally, attempts to discredit another co-founder of Greenpeace – Dr. Patrick Moore – are now commonplace, because he no longer subscribes to AGW.


Notes

1. Watson, P., 1991. Forbes Magazine. November, 1991.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 43
Views of Prominent Members of the Club of Rome


"Unless we announce disasters, no one will listen."

— Sir John Houghton, First Chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (or IPCC)


"We need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public's imagination ... So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts ... Each one of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest."

— The late Dr. Stephen Schneider, Stanford Professor of Biology & Global Change


Notes

1. Houghton, J., 1994. Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. Lion Publishing, PLC.

2. Schneider, Stephen, 1988. Interview for Discover Magazine.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 44
Models Equating to "Convenient Fictions"



"Rather than seeing [climate] models as describing literal truth, we ought to see them as convenient fictions which try to provide something very useful."

— Dr. David Frame, Climate Modeller at Oxford University, and colleagues


Notes

1. Frame, D.J., Faull, N.E., Joshi, M.M., and M.R. Allen, 2007. Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2007. 365:1971-1992. doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2069.

2. Quote is to be found on page 1989.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 45
Models Equating to "Convenient Fictions"
Question:
    Why describe the climate models that are used to argue the case for AGW
    as "... convenient fictions ..."?
 


     
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 46
Models Equating to "Convenient Fictions"
Answer:
    Because the models are not representative of the raw data – rather the interpretation and manipulation of that data in terms of possible scenarios – be they plausible or implausible.
"The [raw] data doesn't matter. We're not basing our recommendations on the data. We're basing them on the climate models."

— Professor Chris Folland, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 47
Sources for the Data and Development of Models


  • Models developed for the IPCC derive primarily from three institutions:
  • Climate Research Unit (or CRU) at the University of East Anglia, in Britain;
    Goddard Institute for Space Studies (or GISS), and
    Global Historical Climatology Network (or GHCN).
  • The common sources of all raw temperature data used by these three institutions is the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (or NOAA) and the National Climatic Data Centre (or NCDC) – both US Government agencies
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 48
Sources for the Data and Development of Models


Question:          What does the raw data comprise?



  • Changes in mean (average) monthly temperature as measured at surface weather stations, including oceanic monitoring stations;


  • More recently, mean (average) monthly temperatures of the earth's troposphere – as determined by satellite observations;


  • Thermometer-based surface measurements of good quality and significant number only go back as far as the 1860s


  • Other means of determining proxy surface temperature records for earlier dates include tree-ring width, ice core studies, δO18 etc..)

Notes

1. The Farenheit temperature scale goes back to 1714 whilst the Celsius scale dates from 1742

2. The ratio of the oxygen isotopes O18 and O16, or difference in oxygen18 (δO18) in such things as ice core samples is used to derive proxy (i.e. indirect) determinations of temperatures from earlier times. Further information can be found here.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 49
Determining the Global Mean Temperature

  • The surface of the earth is rolled out onto a flat map

  • The map is then broken into a large number of cells (or "grid boxes") approximately 8,000 in all and all of equal cell area

  • The grid spacing between each cell covers an area of 5° of latitude × 5° of longitude (or in some instances 3° × 3° cells)

  • The average temperature for each cell is determined from:
  • • Daily data sets provided by various weather stations
    • This data is then used to determine a monthly average, which, in turn,
       forms the basis for the determination of a global average

Notes

1. E.M. Smith, 2010. Assume a Spherical Cow – therefore all steaks are round – Musings from the Chiefio. March 08, 2010. (chiefio.wordpress.com)

2. Each grid cell normally equates to an area of 5° latitude × 5° longitude.

3. Smaller cells of 1° × 1° and 2.5° × 2.5° are also available but now rarely used due to the reduction in data sets feeding into determinations of Mean Global Temperature and associated Temperature Anomalies.

4. The land surface of the earth is covered by 2,592 gridded data points or cells.

5. Needless to say, precision is compromised as the cells decrease in area as they move away for the equator. For instance, a 5° × 5° grid box at the equator will cover an area of approximately 550km2. A 5° × 5° grid box at the Arctic Circle, by way of comparison, will cover an area with a surface area of less than half that at the equator. Between 85° and 90° N and S of the equator the cells assume a triangular form.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 50

Notes

1. Source: Met Office (UK) – HadCRUT3 – Temperature Anomaly for April 2010 compared with the average for 1961 to 1990.

2. Note the number of vacant cells across the globe – but in particular, in the polar region of Northern Canada and Russia, Africa and South America.

3. Note, also, the extent of cooling over SE Asia (including much of mainland China), which, because of its dependency on coal-fired power stations, should be markedly warmer. But it isn't ...
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 51
Determining the Global Mean Temperature


Sounds simple enough, but it's not ... for the following reasons:


  • 70% of the earth's surface covered by water

  • Distribution of surface weather stations is uneven – most are concentrated in the more temperate regions of the earth

  • Records for surface stations vary in both quality and depth of coverage (i.e., how far back they go in time)

  • Temperature readings at weather stations can be severely influenced by surrounding and location:
  • • High latitude cf. low latitude
    • Altitude (adiabatic lapse rate)
    • Proximity to the sea and prevailing winds
    • Rural vs. urban environments

Notes

1. The uneven distribution of weather stations between the tropics, temperate, cooler and polar regions of the earth necessitates a weighting of the grid cells that make up the assessment of the Global Mean Temperature.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 52
The Climategate Controversy
Question:
    What is "Climategate" and why is it so important?
 


     
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 53
The Climategate Controversy
Answer:
    The leakage (possibly by a "whistle-blower") of damning emails from a server at the University of East Anglia's Climate Research Unit (or CRU)

    The emails reveal fraudulent activities of a number of scientists and institutions responsible for the development of models behind the Anthropogenic Global Warming science

Notes

1. The emails first surfaced on the Internet on the 17 November 2009 – in a rather innocuous file dubbed "HARRY_READ_ME.txt", which first surfaced in Russia – before being made public on the Internet.

2. Included more than 1,073 emails and 3,000 coded pieces of data and documents.

3. Climate scientists and professional meteorologists had long suspected that there had been a corruption of the peer-review process when it came to AGW – long before the Climategate scandal broke in the MSM.

4. Opposing views to AGW were effectively stifled through a corrupt peer-review process.

5. In Australia, John L. Daly, published a book entitled The Greenhouse Trap in 1989 – exposing the nonsense arguments of the early AGW hypothesis. John Daly's death in 2004 was the subject of a series of Climategate emails.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 54
Scientists Behaving Badly



  • The notorious "Hockey-Stick" graph of Michael Mann et al


  • Denial of the historicity of the Mediaeval Warming Period (MWP)


  • The dampening of severity of the "Little Ice Age"


  • The worldwide disappearance of weather station data sets


  • "Urban Heat Island" effect and its impact on estimates of mean global temperature


  • Poor placement and changes in weather station location


  • "Hiding the Decline" in temperatures since 1998


  • Recent changes in Arctic ice extent and mass as well as temperatures


  • Recent changes in Antarctic temperatures and ice area and extent and temperatures
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 55
Scientists Behaving Badly (cont)



  • Earlier instances of higher than current CO2 levels


  • Reversal of glacial retreats


  • Declining polar bear populations – true or false?


  • Rising sea levels – true or false?


  • Spikes (errors) in METAR temperature data sets


  • Record lows in northern hemisphere winter temperatures


  • Differences between satellite [lower tropospheric] and surface determinations of Mean Global Temperature – with a widening gap between the two


  • What's so bad about CO2 ?
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 56
The Notorious Mann et al "Hockey-Stick" Graph
      

Notes

1. Mann, M.E., Bradley, R.S., Hughes, M., 1999. Northern Hemisphere Temperatures during the Last Millennium: Inferences, Uncertainties and Limitations. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 26, no. 6, Fig. 3, p.761.

2. Note, firstly, that the graph pertains to the Northern Hemisphere only – it does not relate to changes in the average global temperature over the past millennium.

3. Secondly, note the change in precision post-1600 AD.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 57
The Notorious Mann et al "Hockey-Stick" Graph



  • The notorious "Hockey-Stick" graph of Mann et al, 1998, 1999 constituted the primary evidential argument for recent AGW in IPCC's 1st and 3rd Assessment Reports (AR1 and AR3)


  • Reports by Mann et al critiqued by Dr Ross McKitrick & Steve McIntyre in 2003, 2005


  • McKitrick & McIntyre's views upheld in Wegman Report (July 2006), which concluded: "In general, we find the criticisms of MM03, MM05a and MM05b to be valid and their arguments to be compelling."


  • Further critiques by Dr Craig Loehle (2007) and M&M (2009)


  • More recently, a telling critique by McShane and Wyner (2010)
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 57a
The Notorious Mann et al "Hockey-Stick" Graph



Notes

1. McIntyre, S., McKitrick, R., 2003. Corrections to the Mann et al. (1998) Proxy Data Base and Northern Hemisphere Average Temperature Series. Energy & Environment, 14(6):751-771.

2. McIntyre, S., McKitrick, R., 2005. Hockey sticks, principal components, and spurious significance. Geophysical Research Letters 32(3):L03710.

3. Wegman, E.J., Scott, D.W. and Said, Y.H., 2006. Ad Hoc Committee Report on the 'Hockey Stick' Global Climate Reconstruction. US Senate – Committee on Energy and Commerce & Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Report. Published July 2006, pp. 1-91.

4. Loehle, C., 2007. A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. Energy & Environment, 18:1049-1058.

5. Loehle, C., McCulloch, J.H., 2008. Correction to: A 2000-year global temperature reconstruction based on non-tree ring proxies. Energy and Environment, 19:93-100.

6. McIntyre, S., McKitrick, R., 2009. Proxy inconsistency and other problems in millennial paleoclimate reconstructions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(6):E10 – Letters to the Editor – dated February 10, 2009.

7. McShane, B.B., Wyner, A.J., 2010. A Statistical Analysis of Multiple Temperature Proxies: Are Reconstructions of Surface Temperatures Over the Past 1,000 Years Reliable? Published online at Annals of Applied Statistics (2010) - Next Issues website.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 58

Notes

1. Source: McIntyre, S., 2009. Climate Audit.

2. McIntyre and McKitrick demonstrated that Mann's computer programme generated "Hockey-Stick" patterns regardless of the data fed into it – even random telephone numbers.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 59
Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period


  • Mediaeval Warming Period (MWP) – from 900 AD to 1400 AD


  • Characteristics of the Mediaeval Warming Period
  • • Average global temperature was approximately 0.7°C warmer
       during the height of the MWP than the average for the 20th Century

    • It was a period in which it was possible to grow vines in Vine Street in London

    • It was the period in which the great cathedrals of England and Europe
       were constructed

    • It coincided with the Vikings colonising Greenland

    • It coincided with a temporary melting of the Arctic icecap
       (a Chinese expedition to the North Pole found no ice)

Notes

1. The onset of the Little Ice Age forced the Vikings to leave Greenland.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 60
Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period

Notes

1. Watts, A., 2010. Medieval Warm Period seen in western USA tree ring fire scars. March 17, 2010. WUWT.

2. Refers to research by Thomas W. Swetman at the University of Arizona's Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, which highlighted the fact that between 800 and 1300 A.D. the western Sierra Nevada experienced more frequent forest fires than any time in the past 3,000 years.
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 61
Some Observations on the Graphical Comparison



  • Little variance in global mean temperature between 1000 AD and the early 1900s according to Mann et al


  • A decline of 0.15 - 0.2°C over 900 years


  • No upward shift in temperature in the 1800s – when 'steam age' industrialisation got into full swing


  • A uniform decline in global mean temperature between 1000 AD and the early 1900s according to Mann et al


  • No evidence of an intense MWP according to Mann et al – just the start of a natural cooling trend
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 62
Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period

  • The changing view of the IPCC on the MWP between 1990 and 1992 (AR1, AR2) and later reports, including AR4 (2007)

  • The difference – The substitution of Michael Mann's "Hockey-Stick" graph in the latest Report

Notes

1. Lansner, F., 2010. When the IPCC 'disappeared' the Medieval Warming Period. March 10, 2010. WUWT.
2. Note the progressive elimination of the Mediaeval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in the two IPCC graphs.
Prev
Next



Slide 63
Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period


Question:
    Why did Mann and his colleagues have to get rid of the MWP?


  • If we go back to the comparison graphs, we can see that it was much hotter at the height of the MWP than it is today – approx. 0.5°C warmer


  • This undermines the whole argument for AGW


  • The so-called Climategate emails have much to say about the disappearance of the Mediaeval Warming Period in the Mann et al graph – discussions centring on the need to get rid of the MWP




Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 64
Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"


  • Not only did Michael Mann remove the MWP, he also dampened the impact of the Little Ice Age


  • "Little Ice Age" coincided with the Maunder Minimum (1645 AD to 1715 AD); extending from 1400 AD through to 1900 AD


  • Regression phase coincided with the period 1750 AD to 1925 AD


  • The same graphical comparison of the pre- and post- "Hockey-Stick" graphs highlights the degree of dampening


  • Temperatures during the Little Ice Age plunged up to 0.6°C below the average for the 20th Century


  • The "Hockey-Stick" graph virtually straight-lines pre-1965 history back as far as 1000 AD
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 65
Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"
    

Notes

1. Source (of graph): Watts, A., 2010. Medieval Warm Period seen in western USA tree ring fire scars. March 17, 2010. WUWT.

2. A Frost Fair on the Thames River at Temple Stairs (1684), as depicted by the Dutch artist, Abraham Hondius (1625-1695).
Menu

Prev
Next




Slide 66     
Dampening of Severity
of the "Little Ice Age"

  • The "Hockey-Stick" graph of Mann et al fails to provide an adequate explanation for the large-scale glacial retreats in the latter half of the 18th Century and the 1800s


  • For example, Glacier Bay in Alaska between 1750 (max. advance) and 1925 (max. retreat), where tidewater glacier retreated some 105 kilometres (or 65 miles)
awaiting copyright

Notes

1. Upton, J., 2008. The Alaska Cruise Handbook – A Mile-by-Mile Guide. Coastal Publishing, Bainbridge, WA, p.166.

2. Glacier Bay. Brochure issued by the National Park Service, U.S. Department of the Interior

3. Glacial extents for 1770, 1794, 1860, 1879, 1892, 1907, and 1948 are clearly marked. (Awaiting copyright permission for images)
Menu

Prev
Next




| Home | Contact |

You are viewing Part 1
A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History 4..11
The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' 12..13
AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? 14..18      • Politics and the IPCC 19..25
The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) 26..31
A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome 32..43      • Convenient Fiction 44..46
Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate 47..53
The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly 54..55
The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph 56..58
Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period 59..63
Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age" 64..66

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique?

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

Go to Part 8 296..360      • What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide • The "Precautionary Principle" • Summary • Postscripts

Prev
Align


11-01-2012 07:36:04 103482 //v6