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Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 2 of 8






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Slide 67
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets



  • According to the GHCN, there are 7,280 weather stations worldwide


  • Of these, 6,051 are regarded as active weather stations


  • All of these are capable of providing diurnal data, including:
  • • Maximum Temperature (Tmax)
    • Minimum Temperature (Tmin), and
    • Daily Rainfall
  • Whilst all data sets for rainfall are used, when it comes to daily temperature, there is an ever diminishing number of weather station data sets used in the determination of monthly and annual Global Mean Temperature
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Slide 68
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • E Michael Smith, Steve McIntyre and Anthony Watts have all noted a rather rapid disappearance of weather stations post-1968


  • In NZ, for instance, there were 600 active weather stations – 18 only of which were used in the determination of Global Mean Temperature (quote by David Wratt in New Zealand Herald)


  • This disappearance commenced in the mid-1960s


  • All continents reflect the reduction in number of active weather stations feeding into the GHCN/GISS/CRU determinations of Global Mean Temperature


  • This systemic disappearance continues to this day and right across the world

Notes

1. Gibson, E., 2009. NZ data to feature in fight back over emails. New Zealand Herald dated December 8, 2009.
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Slide 69

       [   true average    estimated average    ]       
Active Weather Stations that were feeding into the GHCN Temperature Record in 1965
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Notes

1. Goetz, J., 2008. Historical Station Distribution. February 10, 2008. Climate Audit.
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Slide 70
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets



  • Note the concentration of blue over the United States – reflecting 1,850 active (then reporting) weather stations in total


  • Other areas of concentration included Great Britain, W and SE Europe, SE Asia and Japan as well as Australia


  • Note also the apparent lack of red (inferior) weather stations over the US mainland – reflecting a high quality of data sets


  • By way of contrast, the concentrated areas in SE and SW Australia are, curiously, largely inferior in nature, whilst those in Central Australia are regarded as being of superior quality
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Slide 71

       [   true average    estimated average    ]       
Number of Active Weather Stations feeding into the GHCN Temperature Record in 2006
================================================

Notes

1. Goetz, J., 2008. Historical Station Distribution. February 10, 2008. Climate Audit.
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Slide 72
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

  • Central Australia has suddenly gone from predominantly blue to red and the concentrations in SE and SW Australia have all but disappeared – despite these being the more populous and developed regions of the continent


  • In the United States concentration has shifted to the eastern half of the continent and become substantially diluted


  • Likewise in Great Britain, Europe and SE Asia the number of retained data sets has fallen dramatically


  • Canada went from a high of 596 in 1974, down to 500 in 1988 and 35 in 2009


  • 40% of Russia – the colder parts of the Russian mainland – are no longer represented as data set inputs into GHCN/GISS/CRU determinations of Global Mean Temperature

Notes

1. For an excellent overview of the disappearing weather station data sets see 2 to 4 below.

2. D'Aleo, J., Watts, A., 2009. Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception. Science & Public Policy Institute (SPPI), January 29, 2010.

3. Terrell, R., 2009. Russia Confirms Climategate Scandal. December 18, 2009. http://thenewamerican.com...russia-confirms-climategate-scandal

4. The Russian newsagency, Ria Novosti, reported that the Moscow-based Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) had indicated that the removal of cold-weather stations in Russia had artificially increased temperatures by as much as 0.64°C.
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Slide 73
    
GHCN Feeders – 1965                             GHCN Feeders – 2006


Blue dots constitute stations where monthly data sets allow an annual average temperature to be calculated; the red do not – and therefore the annual average must be estimated using infill (proxy) data from other "nearby" stations


Notes

1. Goetz, J., 2008. Historical Station Distribution. February 10, 2008. Climate Audit.
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Slide 74
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


The dramatic decline in weather stations feeding into NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) surface temperature analysis is reflected in the middle graph (below)


Notes

1. The middle graph depicts the change in the number of weather stations feeding into the GHCN from 1860 AD through to 2000 AD. These surface weather stations were used by GISS to determine Global Mean Temperature.

2. Note the drop in number of stations between the peak in the mid-1960s and 1998.

3. The dashes in 1998 suggested a further, yet indeterminate, drop at this time.

4. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. Published by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and downloaded on 24/06/2010.

5. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data
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Slide 75


Notes

1. The triplet graphs were downloaded 12 months apart. The top graph was downloaded on the 24.06.2010; the bottom graph on the 06.06.2011.

2. Notation has already been made in relation to the dashes in the top graph – these dashes suggesting a sudden plunge in the number of weather stations deployed in the determination of Global Mean temperature after 1998.

3. The second graph, on the other hand, indicates a slowing in the rate of decline between the late 1990s and 2010.

4. However, the same graph, hints at a sudden drop in the number of weather stations towards the end of the first decade of the 21st Century; though the extent of the drop is (again) "disguised" by the cut-off. This is consistent with the observations of E. Michael Smith.
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76..77
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


Question:
    If the GHCN/GISS/CRU analyses of Global Mean Temperature require the filling of 8,000 cells, why severely reduce the number of data sets that would be available to fill those cells?


Answer:
    In the absence of an assessment of Global Mean Temperature based on the raw (measured) data, it affords the climate scientists the opportunity to manipulate the data in accordance with preconceived AGW hypothesis

    Put simply, it allows the climate scientists to skew the inputs and results to reflect a distinct, recent runaway (catastrophic) global warming trend

    But the upward trend is not happening ...
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Slide 78
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets



  • More recently, E.M. Smith has observed several notable trends in the eliminated data sets. Most of the deleted weather stations were located in:
  • • Rural (or non-urban) areas, or
    • Higher altitude regions of the earth, or
    • High latitude regions, or
    • A combination of the above
  • These stations would generate data that would not be infected by urbanisation and industrialisation; that is, by Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Put simply, data sets from cooler regions were significantly more likely to disappear than warmer ones


  • There has also been a proportional increase in the number of weather stations feeding from the tropics according to E.M. Smith
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Slide 79
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • This disappearance of data sets has continued since 2006


  • In January 2010, the number of active weather stations feeding into the GHCN/GISS/CRU calculations of mean global temperature dropped from 2,403 to 1,597 – a loss of 806 data sets


  • A month later (February 12), a further 484 data sets were removed from future assessments – leaving only 1,113 to cover the entire globe


  • Many of those remaining do not constitute continuous and complete records (red as opposed to blue dots) and are therefore of lesser quality and completeness and requiring "proxy" substitutions to plug the gaps

Notes

1. O'Sullivan, J., 2010. Crooked climatologists drop 806 "cold" weather stations in a single year.

2. The deleted stations were tabulated by E. Michael Smith and published at the former climategate.com website on January 05, 2010.

3. Smith, E.M., 2010. NOAA langoliers eat another 1/3 of stations from GHCN database. Posted at WUWT on February 12, 2010.
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Slide 80
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • The following graph depicts the changes in the number of active weather stations over time feeding into the GHCN/GISS/CRU models (after E.M. Smith, 2009)


  • The colour coding is as follows:
  • • NP = Northern Hemisphere/Polar Zone (70°N-90°N)
    • NC = Northern Hemisphere/Cold Zone (50°N-70°N)
    • NT = Northern Hemisphere/Temperate Zone (30°N-50°N)
    • NW = Northern Hemisphere/Warm (or Tropical) Zone (10°N-30°N)
    • EQ = Equatorial Zone (10°N-10°S)
    • SW = Southern Hemisphere/Warm (or Tropical) Zone (10°S-30°S)
    • ST = Southern Hemisphere/Temperate Zone (30°S-50°S)
    • SC = Southern Hemisphere/Cold Zone (50°S-70°S)
    • SP = Southern Hemisphere/Polar Zone (70°S-90°S)

Notes

1. It's a pity the colours are not consistent with regard to latitudes, and even that colours are repeated without indication of which curve belongs to which hemisphere. But it's not our doing.
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Slide 81
    — Northern Polar
— Northern Cold
— Northern Temperate
— Northern Warm
— Equatorial
— Southern Warm
— Southern Temperate
— Southern Cold
— Southern Polar

Notes

1. Smith, E.M., 2009. Thermometer Langoliers Lunch, 2005 vs 2008. October 22, 2009.

2. The above graph indicates that reductions have occurred in all nine (9) subregions of the earth and pole to pole and not in selected regions.

3. See also: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/station_data

4. The above website records the total number of reporting weather stations (in '000s) across the globe and feeding into the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis. The graph extends from 1850 through to 1997 (only) and ties in with a graphical presentation of the changing number of weather stations between 1950 and 1997 by the University of Delaware.
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Slide 82
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • Turning to North America (including the USA, Canada and Mexico), the peak number of active weather stations feeding data into models of mean global temperature in 1969 was 2,591


  • By 2006, this figure had dropped to 1,272 – a decrease of 1,319


  • By 2008, however, it had dropped a further 1,025 – to 247!


  • The number of active US weather stations that were used in the determination of average annual temperatures globally dropped to 136 in 2008 – down a massive 799 from 2006!


  • To put this into a slightly different perspective, 92.5% of the 1968 US maximum or 9/10ths of possible data sets are no longer used in the determination of mean North American and Global Temperature

Notes

1. Smith, E.M., 2010. dT/dt – AGW DDT. Musings from the Chiefio – dated February 099, 2010.

2. Source: http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2010/02/09/dtdt-agw-ddt

3. Smith, E.M., 2009. Thermometer Langoliers Lunch, 2005 vs 2008. Musings of the Chiefio dated October 22, 2009.
Source: http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/22/thermometer-langoliers-lunch-2005-vs-2008
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Slide 83
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • The following graph depicts the decline in the number of weather station data sets feeding into models used to determine Global Mean Temperature for the United States


  • Starting with a peak of 1,850 in 1968


  • Note the slow initial decline between 1968 and 1995 followed by a rapid decline in more recent times – especially between 2006 and 2008


  • The number sat at 136 in 2009 (December)


  • As of June 2010 the US Climate Reference Network comprises 122 reporting stations (including 114 in the contiguous United States, 6 in Alaska and 2 in Hawaii)

Notes

1. O'Sullivan, J., 2009. Cold Weather Stations Left Out of Climate Data. December 29, 2009

2. Delingpole, J., 2010. Climategate Goes American: NOAA, GISS and the mystery of the vanishing weather stations. Telegraph (UK) January 16, 2010
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Slide 84
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Notes

1. This graph, pertaining to the United States alone, tracks the number of thermometer records from 1850 to 2000.

2. Source: Smith, E.M., 2009. NOAA/NCDC:GHCN – The Global Analysis. November 03, 2009.
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Slide 85
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

view large

view large

Notes

1. USHCN (red inverted triangles) and Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) weather stations (black dots) for the contiguous US.

2. These stations are used by meteorologists when formulating short and long-term weather reports.

3. US Climate Reference Network (USCRN) map down-loaded June 25, 2010 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn/stationmap.html

4. The data sets that derived from weather stations that disappeared between the mid-1960s and the present-day are limited to selected red triangles (i.e., the USHCN weather stations) only.
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Slide 86
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • The preceding scatter graphs (supplied to E.M. Smith by John Goetz and dated 22.10.2009 and 03.11.2009) indicate that the decline in data set numbers commenced in the mid to late-1960s


  • This coincides with the start of purported runaway "global warming" – as depicted in the "Hockey-Stick" graph of Mann et al and exemplified in the following GISS graph dated 09.06.2008 – which focuses on the period between 1890 and 2007


  • The suddenness in the change from the preceding cyclical pattern is clearly apparent


  • The trend immediately prior to 1965 was 'downward'
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Slide 87
    
GISS US Graph Prior to 2000                GISS US Graph Post-2000


The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Notes

1. Note that the GISS graph prior to 2000 indicated that the 1930s were the warmest period in the past 120 years in the United States.

2. The post-2000 graph – in line with the removal of 'cooler' weather stations across the USA – sees the peak shift to the first decade of the 21st Century. However, it doesn't conceal the impact of two El Niño events in 1998 and 2007 nor the dramatic decline in 2008 and 2009.

3. Refer to: Goddard, S., 2010. GISTEMP Movie Matinees. WUWT dated July 23, 2010.
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Slide 88
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • Turning to Australia ...


  • According to E. M. Smith the number of active weather stations peaked at 586 in 1975


  • Of these, 86 were shown to have been "dropped" from GHCN and GISTemp determinations of Global Mean Temperature


  • Between 1992 and 1993 the number of active weather stations dropped – from 446 down to 45 – and 42 between 1995 and 1998


  • Modest increase back to 65 by 2008


  • Proportional shift towards (warmer) northern Australia over time

Notes

1. Smith, E.M., 2009. GHCN – Aussie Fair Go and Far Gone. Published on line on October 23, 2009 at http://chiefio.wordpress.com...fair-go-and-far-gone

2. Alpine areas of Australia are confined to SE New South Wales, NE Victoria and Tasmania.
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Slide 89
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Notes

1. Plot based on data of E.M. Smith.

2. Source: Smith, E.M., 2010. GHCN – Aussie Fair Go and Far Gone. Base data downloaded from Smith's web site – chiefio.wordpress.com...fair-go-and-far-gone
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Slide 90
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


  • Australia's BOM excludes urban stations from determinations of "annual all-Australian temperature and maps of trends in temperature" – recognising that urban sites are infected by UHI


  • In 2006 the National Climate Centre (NCC) used 99 non-urban (essentially rural) weather stations for its determination of temperature trends; excluding 34 urban stations from calculations


  • Of the 133 weather stations used by the NCC in 2006 no less than 56 were located at airports


  • By 2009, however, the number of weather station data sets had dropped to 81 – down a further 18

Notes

1. Collins, D.A., 2006. High-Quality Australian Annual Temperature Dataset. Published on-line by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology – National Climate Centre and dated February 2006.
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Slide 91
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets
  

Notes

1. Variation in the number of weather station data sets used by the National Climate Centre between 1910 and 2009.

2. High-Quality Annual Temperature Network as of 2006 – including non-urban (rural) and urban weather station data sets.

3. The removal of urban sets from calculations of mean temperature for the Australian continent results in a disproportionately large number of weather stations in northern Australia. This trend has been documented by E. Michael Smith in his study of weather stations in Australia – refer below.

4. Smith, E.M., 2009. GHCN – Aussie Fair Go and Far Gone. Downloaded from chiefio.wordpress....fair-go-and-far-gone
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Slide 92
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets


Arctic (left) and Antarctic (right) regions no longer covered by data set temperatures from active weather stations

    

Notes

1. Black denotes areas of the Arctic and Antarctic where there is no longer any feeding of temperatures into the determination of Mean Global Temperature – even though active weather stations exist in these regions.

2. Source: GISS 250km Arctic and Antarctic Images – downloaded.

3. Refer to: Goddard, S., 2010. Sea Ice News #15. WUWT dated July 25, 2010.
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Slide 93
The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets
    

Notes

1. Source: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis – June 2008 Update and Effects. Issued by Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, N.Y.

2. Note the decline between the late 1930s and 1963 and, possibly, the mid-1970s – a period which coincides with WW2 and the post-war baby boom. Yet the overriding trend is one of global cooling.

3. Proponents of AGW have to account for this decline if their theory has any merit.

4. The Keeling curve at Mauna Loa – which extends from 1958 through to the present day – reflects a continuously upward trend in CO2 concentration.
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| Home | Contact |

Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

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The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets 67..93

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique?

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

Go to Part 8 296..360      • What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide • The "Precautionary Principle" • Summary • Postscripts

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