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Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 3 of 8






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Slide 94
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


  • Changes to our natural environment can lead to significant increases in temperature. Such changes would include:
  • • Transition from rural to urban environment;
    • Replacement of native vegetation with man-made structures;
    • Asphaltic and concrete road surfaces – multiple lane hwys & fwys;
    • Steel roofing in the case of consolidated warehouse districts;
    • Airport runways and test-cell areas;
    • Steel mills and heavy industrial activities;
    • CBD office towers and high and medium density residential belts;
    • Automobile exhaust;
    • Air-conditioning venting, and
    • Incinerators etc.
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Slide 95
    
ca. 1943                                                 ca. 2009

O'Hare International Airport, Chicago


Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


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Slide 96
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


  • Transections of larger city reveal significant variances in temperature in CBDs, built-up areas of residential and industrial development and, to a lesser extent, urban fringes when compared against rural regions


  • Daytime heating carries over into higher night time temps


  • The difference between these measured temperatures and those that would otherwise prevail (i.e., natural ambient temperatures) under nature itself and taking into account latitude, seasonal variations, proximity to coastlines, height above sea level, air pressure, levels of cloud cover etc.) is the measure of "Urban Heat Island" effect


  • As cities increase in size and population, so too does the UHI effect

Notes

1. Watts, A., 2010. Shocker! ABC says UHI making cities hotter! WUWT dated June 26, 2010.

2. Refers to: McCarthy, M.P., Best, M.J., Betts, R.A., 2010. Climate change in cities due to global warming and urban effects. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, LO9705, doi:10.1029/2010GL042845.

3. See also: Dixon, D., 2010. Scientific American on-line comment dated June 29, 2010. http://scientificamerican.com....hot-cities
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Slide 97
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


Example: A Temperature Transect of Reno, Nevada on 28.10.2008


Notes

1. Source: Watts, A., 2010. UHI is alive and well. January 31, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 98
Visible Light    Surface Heat    Developed Land    Vegetation Cover

BUFFALO, N.Y.


Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect

Notes

1. Note the degree of surface heat in Buffalo, N.Y. – light colouring indicates regions of intense heat, darker colours areas of lesser heat island effect.

4. The research by NASA indicated that "Summer land surface temperatures of cities in the Northeast [of the United States of America] were an average of 7°C to 9°C (13°F to 16°F) warmer than surrounding rural areas over a three year period. ... By comparing 42 cities in the Northeast, they found that densely-developed cities with compact urban cores are more apt to produce strong urban heat islands than more sprawling, less intensively-developed cities."
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Slide 99
Visible Light    Surface Heat    Developed Land    Vegetation Cover

PROVIDENCE, R.I.


Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect

Notes

1. Note the degree of surface heat in Providence, R.I. – light colouring indicates regions of intense heat, darker colours areas of lesser heat island effect. Providence is more intensively developed than Buffalo, with significant and concentrated high-rise development and urban consolidation around the city's CBD.

2. Source: NASA - Satellites Pinpoint Drivers of Urban Heat Islands in the Northeast (published online on December 13, 2010).
Refer: http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/heat-island-sprawl.html
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Slide 100
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


  • Barrow, Alaska – an Arctic settlement


  • Population increased from 300 in 1900 to 4,600 in 2000


  • Exhibits up to 2.2° C of UHI in winter compared with surrounding hinterland


  • UHI increases to 3.2° C when calm (no wind)
     

Notes

1. UHI is not restricted to larger cities. Barrow is the northern-most settlement in the United States, situated on the Arctic shore of Alaska (near the Chukchi Sea).

4. The remote settlement exhibited up to 2.2° C of UHI during the winter months extending from December 2001 to March 2002.

5. Hinkel, K.M., Nelson, F.E., Klene, A.E. and Bell, J.H., 2003. The Urban Heat Island in Winter at Barrow, Alaska. International Journal of Climatology, vol. 23, pp. 1889-1905.

6. The weather station at Barrow Airport is used by GHCN and GISS to determine "proxy" Arctic temperatures. However, readings are clearly "infected" with significant UHI and, therefore, inflate high-latitudinal Arctic temperatures.
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Slide 101
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


The gap between raw annual temperatures for urban and rural regions is widening over time; as evidenced in the following graph based on surface temperature data for the United States


Notes

1. Source: Watts, A., 2010. A new paper comparing NCDC rural and urban US surface temperature data. February 26, 2010. WUWT.

2. Refers to: Long, E., 2010. Contiguous U.S. Temperature Trends Using NCDC Raw and Adjusted Data for One-Per-State Rural and Urban Station Sets.
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102..103
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


  • This gap theoretically constitutes a measure of two components: (1) "Urban Heat Island" Effect and (2) long-term climatic variation. Climatologists must isolate both to determine whether there is an underlying warming trend.


  • The battlelines between AGW advocates and skeptics centre on the proportion of the gap attributed to UHI effect. AGW advocates suggest that UHI effect is negligible and that most of the gap reflects a warming climatic trend, whilst climate skeptics argue that a substantial proportion of the gap is attributable to UHI.
Question:
Given the recent and substantial decline in the number of "cooler" weather station data sets and the retention ("cherry-picking") of warmer data sets for use in the determination of recent Global Mean Temperature, how much of the IPCC's projections of runaway global warming can be credited to UHI effect?
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Slide 104
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


  • Dr. Roy W. Spencer is one of the world's leading atmospheric physicists as well as a leader in the field of satellite-based temperature monitoring of the earth's troposphere.


  • Spencer developed a model to determine the extent of UHI present in the United States between 1973 and 2009


  • Four population density classes were established and weather stations "binned" according to their respective densities


  • Population densities range from a low of 0-25 persons/km2 up to a maximum density of greater than 400 persons/km2


  • The raw data sets of the weather stations in each "bin" were then contrasted against the corresponding data sets in the CRUTem3 for the period between 1973 and 2009

Notes

1. Spencer, R.W., 2010. Spurious Warming in the Jones U.S. Temperatures Since 1973. February 27, 2010. WUWT.

2. Spencer, R.W., 2010. The Global Average Urban Heat Island Effect in 2000 Estimated from Station Temperatures and Population Density Data. March 03, 2010. WUWT.

3. Spencer, R.W., 2010. Global Urban Heat Island Effect Study – An Update. March 10, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 105
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect

Notes

1. Spencer, R.W., 2010. Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious. March 16, 2010. WUWT.

2. To de-clutter the graph, only the lowest population data set was plotted against CRUTemp3 data. Hence, the comparison is effectively for rural environments in the mainland of the United States and with populations ranging between 0 and 25 persons per km2.
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Slide 106
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect



Dr. Spencer noted that:

  • For the 26 grid cells supporting all four population classes in the US, the rate of increase in temperature for the lowest density class was 0.09°C per decade (as reflected by the blue trendline)


  • This contrasted with 0.20°C/decade for the trend line derived for the mean annual temperatures for the same grid cells based on the CRUTem3 data


  • The two hottest years in the case of the lowest population density class were 1987 and 1990, whereas the CRUTem3 data suggested 1998 and 2006


  • In the case of the lowest population density class the high peaks appear to be declining after 1990, whereas the CRUTem3 peaks are increasing in intensity with the passage of time
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Slide 107
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect



Dr Spencer concluded:

    "... the warming trend in the lowest population class is only 47% of the CRUTem3 trend, a factor of two difference. ... From looking at the warmest years in the CRUTem3 data, one gets the impression that each new high-temperature year supersedes the previous one in intensity. But the low-population stations show just the opposite: the intensity of the [so-called] warmest years is actually decreasing over time."
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Slide 108
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect

Notes

1. Spencer, R.W., 2010. Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious. March 03, 2010. WUWT.

2. The graph depicts the systemic differences (disagreements) between the CRUTem3 and those based on low population densities of less than 25 persons per km2 over time.
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Slide 109
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect



Spencer also concluded that:

    "... Taken together, ... these results provide powerful and direct evidence that the GHCN data still has a substantial spurious warming component, at least for the period (since 1973) and region (the United States) addressed here."



  • Put simply, "Urban Heat Island" effect is real and can account for a substantial proportion – at least half – of the recent warming trend attributed to anthropogenic global warming (AGW) – as demonstrated in the differences between the lowest population density class and the CRUTem3 results.
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Slide 110
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect

Notes

1. Source: Goodridge, J., 1996. Comments on Regional Simulations of Greenhouse Warming, including Natural Variability. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 77, pp.3-4.

2. At the time of publication of the above comment, Goodridge was the California State Climatologist.

3. See also: LaDochy, S., Medina, R. and Patzert, W., 2007. Recent California climate variability: spatial and temporal patterns in temperature trends. Climate Research, 33:159-169. Dated February 22.
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Slide 111
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect


  • The disappearance of the 'cooler' weather stations has distorted the view of Global Mean Temperature – biasing the data towards warmer (UHI affected) regions


  • The "cherry-picking" and biasing is exemplified by the fact that 92% of the remaining GHCN data sets for the USA are found at airports – with approx. 41% worldwide


  • As much as half of the recent rise in global mean temperature is attributable to UHI effect – not rising CO2
Question:
    What else could be contributing to the apparent increase in Global Mean Temperature?






Notes

1. Watts, A., 2010. On the "march of the thermometers." March 8, 2010. WUWT (based on analysis by E. Michael Smith.)
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Slide 112
Skewing of Results – Siting of Weather Stations


  • The siting of a weather station can have a major influence on data output, especially if located near or in close proximity to:
  • • Large or commercial incinerators;
    • Airport runways and aircraft test cells;
    • Highways, expressways;
    • Large areas of asphalt or concrete;
    • Air-conditioning exhausts (outlet vents);
    • Large warehouse districts with steel roofing, and
    • High-rise CBD buildings and areas of increased urban consolidation
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Slide 113
  

  

Notes

1. Watts, A., 2010. Christy and McKitrick in the UK Times: doubts on station data. February 14, 2010. WUWT.

2. Each instance reflects (consciously or otherwise) poor site selection when it comes to locating weather stations. It may well infer an attempt to exaggerate the extent of warming through selection of sites where there are known heat sources.

3. Photos courtesy of WUWT and SurfaceStations.org.
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Slide 114
Quality of USHCN Surface Weather Stations

Survey and rating of 1,003 of the 1,221 active surface weather stations in the United States up to July 16, 2009 and with ratings as follows:

    • CRN-1 (Best)
• CRN-2 (Good)
• CRN-3 (Fair)
• CRN-4 (Poor)
• CRN-5 (Worst)
   

Notes

1. Source: Surfacestations.org – July 16, 2009.

2. For instance, NOAA Climate Reference Network (CRN) Site Information Handbook suggests that, in the case of Category 1 and 2 weather station sites: "The most desirable local surrounding landscape is a relatively large and flat, open area with low vegetation in order that the sky view is unobstructed .... [there can be] no artificial heating source within 100 metres (330 feet) ..." Even in the case of lower quality stations, there is to be "... no artificial heating source within 10 metres (33 feet)."
Ref. http://pajamasmedia....remarkable-lie-from-your-taxpayer-funded-noaa
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Slide 115
Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures


  • Continental land masses constitute approx. 29.8% of the surface area of the Earth – the oceans 70.2%


  • In determining average global temperature, GISS does not adopt the average of cell temperatures across the globe (i.e., both land and sea), but rather, builds in a bias in favour of land values by weighting land cells more highly than oceanic cells


  • This bias has become particularly evident over the last 30 years (i.e., post-1980)


  • Combined with the deletion of 'cooler' weather station data sets, this leads to an intensification of temperature increase by taking advantage of the UHI effect
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Slide 116
Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures

Notes

1. Lansner, F., 2010. Tipping point at GISS? Land and sea weight out of balance. Posted on line on July 17, 2010. WUWT.

2. A more detailed exposé by Lansner is to be found at the website: http://hidethedecline.eu/...perplexing...and-recent-temperature-data
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Slide 117
Biasing towards Urban Weather Stations


  • Most weather stations used to monitor climate and determine global mean temperatures now derive from urbanised areas of the earth (e.g., the preponderance of stations at airports in the GHCN)


  • Such stations are prone to UHI


  • Yet urbanised areas of the earth constitute only 3% of the earth's land surface or 0.9% of the planet's surface area


  • Source: Columbia University Earth Institute's Global Rural Urban Mapping Project (or GRUMP) -- completed in 2005


  • Accordingly, global temperatures are biased towards cities with strong UHI influences (or signatures)

Notes

1. Source: Watts, A., 2010. 3% of Earth's Landmass is now urbanised. Watts Up With That, dated December 23, 2010.
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Slide 118
Biasing towards Urban Weather Stations
    

Notes

1. Source: earth.columbia.edu/news/2005/story03-07-2005.html
Earth Institute News Archive. The Growing Urbanization of the World. Posted 03.08.2005.
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Slide 119
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature


The subject of several 'Climategate' emails:

"I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (i.e., from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's, to hide the decline."

— Phil Jones to Ray Bradley, Mike Mann and Malcolm Bradley dated 16.11.1999
[email # 0942777075]

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Slide 120

Notes

1. The tree-ring chronology of Keith Briffa – a dendrochronology expert at the UEA – which evinces not only a recent decline in temperatures in the latter half of the 20th Century, but also provides support for the Little Ice Age, including the Maunder and Dalton Minimums.

2. Tree-ring chronologies have provided a proxy temperature record for the period preceding thermometer-based temperatures.

3. Source: McIntyre, S., 2010. Desmogging Desmog's Tricks – Part 2. Climate Audit. June 15, 2010.
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Slide 121
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature


"The scientific community would come down on me in no uncertain terms if I said the world had cooled since 1998. OK it has, but it is only seven years of data and it isn't statistically significant."

— Phil Jones to John Christy, dated 05.07.05
[email # 1120593115]

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Slide 122
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature


"Just updated my global temperature trend graphic for a public talk and noted that the level has really been quite stable since 2000 or so and 2008 doesn't look too hot."

— Mick Kelly to Phil Jones dated 24.10.2008
[email # 1225026120]

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Slide 123
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature


"I think we have been too readily explaining the slow changes over the past decade as a result of variability – that explanation is wearing thin. I would suggest, as a backup to your prediction, that you also do some checking on the sulfate issue, just so you might have a quantified explanation in case the prediction is wrong. Otherwise the Skeptics will be all over us – the world is really cooling, the models are no good, etc. And all this just as the US is about ready to get serious on the issue."

— Mike McCracken to Phil Jones and Chris Folland dated 03.01.2009
[email # 1231190304]

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Slide 124
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature


"The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. ... Our observation system is inadequate."

— Kevin Trenberth to Michael Mann dated 12.10.2009
[email # 1255352257]

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Slide 125
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature


  • The decline is a major problem for advocates of the AGW hypothesis since it runs contrary to the projections of the IPCC and those provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UoEA) and Hadley Climate Centre


  • The following three graphs depict the evidence of the recent decline and a possible longer-term trend that doesn't marry with the projections by the IPCC
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Slide 126
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature

Notes

1. Orssengo, G., 2010. Predictions of Global Mean Temperature & IPCC Projections. March 25, 2010. WUWT
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Slide 127
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature

  • The recent decline in global surface temperature (post-2003) is evident in the HadCRUT3 results plots for the period – 1860 to 2009


  • Decline is evident in all three plots – NH, SH and Global plots
     

Notes

1. Source: Jones, P., 2009. HadCRUT3. Climate Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia.
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Slide 128
     
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature

  • By 2009 there were 11 years of decline – not seven


  • In spite of rising CO2 levels, there is a discernible decline in Global Mean Temperature over the past decade according to UAH satellite data between 1998 and 2010 (normalised trend)

Notes

1. The Hockey Schtick Graph. 2010.
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Slide 129
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature

  • Satellite data suggests the earth is cooling whilst the surface temperature data is suggesting only a decline post-2003 – or is it?


  • A closer inspection of the CRU graphics present a slightly longer timeframe – extending back to 1998

Notes

1. Plot of Mean Global Surface Temperatures (source: Hadley Centre and Climate Research Unit) plotted against measurements of CO2 as measured at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

2. The Global Warming Scam. http://whatreallyhappened.com....globalwarming. April 17, 2010.
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130..131
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature

Question:
    What would happen if the deleted weather stations were reinstated into the analysis?
Answer:
    The "Hockey-Stick" blade would disappear and the start of the decline in Mean Global Temperatures might be pushed back from the late-1990s to the early to mid-1970s – ironically, to when climate scientists were starting to warn of an impending ice age or Dalton Minimum type event

Notes

1. Average global temperatures based on satellite (passive microwave radiometry) data for the lower troposphere – which extend back to 1979 – suggest a rate of increase half that of the GISS determinations between 1979 and 1996. After 1996, they started to decline.

2. Prior to 1979 lower tropospheric temperatures were based, substantially, on weather balloon (radiosondes) data – which was less reliable and comprehensive (i.e., more sporadic). During the period 1958 to 1975, mean global temperature based on weather balloons reflected a downwards trend.
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Slide 132

Notes

1. Note the decline in temperatures for the period between 1958 and 1975 based on the radiosonde measurement technique (black line).

2. Consistent with the trend indicated by surface weather stations over the same timeframe by NOAA (blue line).

3. Spencer, R.W., 2010. Direct Evidence that Most U.S. Warming Since 1973 Could Be Spurious. 16.03.2010. WUWT.

4. The decline in temperature anomaly between 1957 and 1975 should be expected to be accompanied by a decline in CO2. However, there was none for the corresponding period.
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Slide 133
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature

  • Dr. James E. Hansen – current Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) – the 'father' of the current AGW hypothesis


  • Supported the alternative view of a cooling earth back in the early 1970s.
     


Notes

1. Dr. James E. Hansen at 1988 Congressional Hearing on Climate Change in Washington D.C. (June 23, 1988) – top photo.

2. Dr. James E. Hansen in 2008 – 20 years after the original Congressional Hearing – bottom photo.
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Slide 133a
Hiding the [Recent] Decline in Mean Temperature




Notes

3. Hansen did not undertake studies in climatology or meteorology. He completed an undergraduate arts degree with a major in physics and mathematics, an M.S. in astronomy and a PhD, again, in the field of physics. The focus of Hansen's research upon completion of his doctoral dissertation was the atmosphere of Venus. He became convinced that the planet Venus once had an atmosphere similar to that of Earth and that the planet's cloud cover and surface waters disappeared as a consequence of a "runaway greenhouse effect". This was pure speculation. However, the scenario was subsequently extrapolated to the Earth and now forms the theoretical basis for the AGW hypothesis.

4. In the early 1970s Hansen developed a computer programme, the outputs of which formed the basis for a paper by Columbia University scientist, S. Ichtiaque Rasool, and Stephen H. Schneider. These authors argued that aerosols would more than offset the heating effects of CO2 in the earth's atmosphere, since the rate of carbon dioxide forcing diminishes with increased concentration. Aerosols, on the other hand, precipitate more cloud cover and, therefore, increase planetary albedo of the Earth (i.e., reflection of sunlight) – thereby increasing the possibility of global cooling and, if left unchecked, the risk of another ice age.

5. Rasool, S.I., Schneider, S.H., 1971. Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases in Global Climate. Science, 173 (3992):138-141. The paper may be downloaded in PDF format at: klimakatastrophe.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/prof-stephen-schneider-klimawissenschaften-im-wandel-der-zeiten
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Slide 134

Notes

1. Overlay of GISTEMP calculated measurements of Mean Global Temperature and three scenarios postulated by Hansen et al in their 1998 Journal of Geophysical Research paper.

2. Note the drop in temperatures prior to 1965.

3. Note, also, the decline in the GISTEMP overlay post-2003 and remember that this includes a substantial UHI effect component.

4. Finally, note that the GISTEMP sits below all three scenarios – including Scenario C – the least extreme of the three scenarios by Hansen et al.

5. Source: Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., Russell, G., and Stone, P. 1998. Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Space Studies – Three-Dimensional Model. Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 93, No. D8 (August 1998), pp. 9341-9364.
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Slide 135
What of the Earlier Decline?


  • Post-1998 decline not the only period of cooling in recent times


  • Extended period of global cooling took place between the late-1930s and mid-1970s (despite increase in CO2)


  • Still evident in the GISS plots for the mainland United States


  • Concerning this period of global cooling, Phil Jones stated in 1985, "No satisfactory explanation for this cooling exists, and the cooling is perplexing because it is contrary to the trend expected from increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration."


  • This cooling trend was the trigger for the assertion of an impending "ice age" by James E. Hansen.
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Slide 136
What of the Earlier Decline? – (late-1930s to mid-1970s)
GISS US Graph Prior to 2000

  GISS US Graph Post-2000


Notes

1. Note that the GISS graph prior to 2000 indicated that the 1930s were the warmest period in the past 120 years in the United States.

2. The post-2000 graph - in line with the removal of cooler weather stations across the USA - sees the peak shift to the first decade of the 21st Century. However, it doesn't conceal the impact of two El Niño events in 1998 and 2007 nor the dramatic decline in 2008 and 2009.

3. Refer to: Goddard, S., 2010. GISTEMP Movie Matinees. WUWT dated July 23, 2010.
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137..138
Increased CO2 Concentration — Unique or Not?


Question:
    Is the recent upward trend in CO2 concentration unique and prima-facie evidence for AGW?
Answer:
    Definitely not
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Slide 139
Increased CO2 Concentration — Unique or Not?


  • CO2 levels were 4.7 times higher (1,800ppm) at the time of the Flood than they are today (ca. 380ppm) and probably higher before the Flood


  • Review of 90,000 accurate chemical analyses in air for the Northern hemisphere since 1812 by Ernst-Georg Beck and published (2007) in the journal Energy & Environment


  • CO2 levels were also significantly higher or comparable in the recent past:
  • • 1828 – 480ppm
    • 1861 – 400ppm
    • 1943 – 470ppm
  • Miara suggests a higher figure of 470ppm in 1943 and Scholander a figure of 430ppm for 1948; both based on analysis of ice core data

Notes

1. Beck, E.-G., 2007. 180 Years of Atmospheric CO2 Gas Analysis by Chemical Methods. Energy & Environment, vol. 18, no. 2, (2007). pp. 259-282.

2. Note that the early decades of the 19th Century coincided with the wide-spread development and use of coal-fired steam engines – an integral part of the Industrial Revolution. This was followed by development and expansion of railways in the mid-1800s. CO2 production increased rapidly between 1810 and 1830 as people in the Northern Hemisphere sought to counter the effects of declining temperatures.
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Slide 140

Notes

3. The Dalton Minimum – which extended from 1790 to 1830 – impacted the production rate of CO2. This, fortuitously, coincided with a period of intense global cooling, which offset the increase in atmospheric CO2 – principally through increased absorption of atmospheric CO2 by the earths oceans.

4. A smaller decline in global temperatures took place towards the end of the 19th Century – between 1880 and 1890.

5. Note also the close coincidence between the earlier chemically determined and Keeling values of CO2 concentration in 1957; a validation in itself of the veracity of earlier chemical determinations.
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Slide 141
Increased CO2 Concentration — Unique or Not?


  • CO2 concentration can be influenced by a number of factors, including:

    • • Protracted periods of war (e.g., WW1 and 2, Kuwait)
      • Land-based volcanic eruptions (10% of active volcanos)
      • Underwater volcanic eruptions (90% of active volcanos)
      • Deforestation
      • Large scale (cataclysmic) bushfires
      • Short-term climatic changes (e.g., El Niño events)
      • Sunspot activity and cloud formation (which can impact
         both ocean and land surface temperatures)

Notes

1. There are more than 500 historically active land-based volcanos (1), with about 70 of these erupting on any single day (2).

2. Source (1): USGS – Volcanic Environments. http://pubs.usgs.gov/gip/volc/environments.html

3. Source (2): USGS – Volcanic Hazards Program. Volcanic Gases and Climate Change review. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php

4. Source: One Volcano Exposes the Massive Carbon Scheme Fraud – Where Does the Carbon Really Come From? http://setyoufreenews.com/2011/06/one-volcano-exposes-massive-carbon-fraud.html
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Slide 141a
Increased CO2 Concentration — Unique or Not?


Notes

5. Surface volcanos add between 150 and 260 million tonnes of CO2 to the earth's atmosphere each year (0.15 to 0.26 gigatonnes/annum or 410,000 to 712,000 tonnes per day).

6. Source: USGS – Volcanic Hazards Program. Volcanic Gases and Climate Change review. http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php. Downloaded on 29 June 2011.

7. In the case of major eruptions, CO2 emission can be huge. For instance, in the case of the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjoell ( Mount Eyjafjallajokull ) in Iceland (April 2010), CO2 emissions were estimated to be between 150,000 and 300,000 tonnes per day; almost half the daily average for the entire globe. This is equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of a small-to-medium European economy.

8. Source: http://www.breitbart.com/article.... Volcano emitting 150,000 to 300,000 tonnes of CO2 daily: experts.

9. Other major eruptions in recent times include: Mount Pinatubo (Philippines, April-July, 1991) and Puyehue-Cordon Caulle (Chile, 2011).

10. It should also be noted that, even when "dormant", up to 200 volcanos will be releasing gases through vents and fissures on any single day.

11. However, this figure is dwarfed by 5,000 active submarine volcanos.

12. It is believed that between 66 and 97 million tonnes of CO2 is added to the oceans as a result of underwater volcanic activity each year.
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Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

You are viewing Part 3
Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect 94..118
Skewing the Results – Siting and Quality of Weather Stations 112..114
Skewing the Results – Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures 115..118
Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature 119..136
Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique? 137..141a

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

Go to Part 8 296..360      • What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide • The "Precautionary Principle" • Summary • Postscripts

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11-01-2012 07:36:15 075576 //v6