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Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 4 of 8






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Slide 142
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
The "Big Arctic Meltdown" of 2007

Notes

1. We have all heard of the catastrophic melting of the Arctic ice sheet back in 2007. Advocates of AGW argued that this was a natural response to rising Arctic temperatures, which, in turn, were being triggered by increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2.
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Slide 143
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
    
Comparison of the Maximum Melts in 2006 & 2007

Notes

1. The two NSIDC images are 12 months apart and coincide with the Autumnal equinox of each year – which, in turn, coincides with the approximate time of maximum melt in the Arctic.
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Slide 144
NSIDC Comparison – 6 months each side of the 2007 Meltdown
A rapid decline followed by a rapid recovery

Notes

1. So what triggered the sudden melt-down?
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Slide 145
Post Autumnal Equinox Expansion of Arctic Ice Pack

Notes

1. Rapid growth of the Arctic ice pack over a 3.5 week period between the Autumnal equinox and the 14th October, 2010.

2. Source: Cryosphere Today – as documented by the University of Illinois, Urbana.

3. Cryosphere animation only includes sea ice concentrations greater than 30%.
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Slide 146
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Extent & Volume


  • 2007 record low in Arctic sea ice extent in recent times


  • At the time, it was predicted by Al Gore, David Barber and others that the Arctic would disappear somewhere between 2013 and 2030


  • Summer "thaw" is, however, an annual (i.e., natural) event


  • Shrinkage can be exacerbated by El Niño events in the northern Pacific and northern Atlantic oceans


  • Bastardi noted that the big thaw in the Arctic in 2007 coincided with an El Niño event in 2006-07 and that the current recovery is taking place in spite of a second El Niño event in 2009-10.
Question:        What has happened since 2007?



Notes

1. The Arctic icepack is best described as a "floating iceblock" in the Arctic Ocean.

2. Bastardi, J., 2010. Food for thought from Joe Bastardi. AccuWeather report dated April 14, 2010.
http://www.accuweather.com

3. The El Niño events are the drivers behind the warm phases in the Pacific Decadal Oscillations. A second El Niño event commenced in 2009 and has run through to 2010.
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Slide 147
NSIDC Comparison – Autumn Equinox of 2007, 2008 & 2009
Recovery can be Rapid

Notes

1. Minimum sea ice extent takes place in September – about the time of the Autumnal Equinox.

2. The above Cryosphere Today images depict a significant improvement in both Arctic sea ice extent and quality (i.e., concentration) between 2007 and 2009.

3. Not only is the extent of sea ice greater in 2009 than 2007, but concentration is also increasing – indicating a rapid recovery of the ice pack.

4. Source: The Cryosphere Today. University of Illinois – available or closest available images for the Autumnal equinoxes in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
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Slide 148
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Concentration

Notes

1. Note the distinctly greater sea ice concentration in 2011 (compared with that for 2007).

2. Comparison of Cryosphere Today images is taken at the time of the Spring Equinox (Northern Hemisphere) – which coincides (approximately) with maximum annual sea ice extent.
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Slide 149
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Area & Extent
(source: NANSEN, 29 Aug 2010)
Area
  Extent

Notes

1. A second source of Arctic sea ice data, including sea ice area and extent, are Nansen's NORSEX SSM/I graphs.
2. The graphs depict the cycle of expansion and contraction of Arctic sea ice – both in terms of actual surface area and extent (spread) for a given concentration - > or = to 15%.
3. Note the downward trending red line, representing the changes in sea ice area and extent for the first 8-months of 2010. This is compared against plots for 2007 to 2009.
4. Maximum sea ice extent was significantly greater in 2010 than in the preceding three years (2007, 2008 and 2009). However, between May and July it dropped below the 2009 plot. This indicates the sensitivity of the sea ice pack to prevailing (and variable) weather conditions.
5. The timing of maximum sea ice extent can also be quite variable – up to two weeks either side of the Northern Hemisphere's spring equinox.
6. Source: Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center (NERSC), dated August 29, 2010.
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Slide 150
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Area & Extent
(source: NANSEN, 13 Dec 2010)
Area
  Extent

Notes

1. NORSEX plots for Arctic sea ice area and extent four months later.

2. A last-minute, northward shift in warm winds during the first week of August saw a significant amount of low concentration ice melt in the Arctic, bringing the maximum sea ice area below that of 2009. The warm winds emanated in western Russia, which experienced heatwave conditions from late July through to mid-August.

3. Note that the thawing of the Arctic icecap consistently reaches its peak within a week of the Autumnal Equinox (i.e., Sept 23 in 2010), whilst maximum expansion of the icecap can vary up to two weeks either side of the vernal or Spring Equinox (i.e., March 20 in 2010).

4. Source: Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) dated December 13, 2010.
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Slide 151
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Area & Extent
(source: NANSEN, 20 Jun 2011)
Area
  Extent

Notes

1. In spite of the aforementioned autumnal melt (see Slide 143), the maximum sea ice extent and area for 2011 were still well above the corresponding figures for 2007 and close to that of 2008.

2. Source: NORSEX SSM/I graphs updated to 20 June, 2011.
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Slide 152
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly & Area
    
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Slide 152a
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly & Area



Notes

1. The above graphs describe the dynamic changes to the Arctic sea ice pack for the entire satellite period (1979-2011). Note the largest negative sea ice anomaly coincided with 2007. Since then, the anomaly has lessened as the Arctic ice pack has recovered.

2. The first graph depicts the Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Anomaly – that is, the variance from a long-term mean for the Arctic (30-year period 1979 to 2008).

3. The second graph depicts the actual area (in millions of km2).

4. Source: The Cryosphere Today. Published by University of Illinois. Dated Sept 11, 2010.

5. The rebound from the 2007 low is clearly evident in both plots of the anomaly (LHS) and area (RHS).

6. In both cases, the maxima and minima for 2008 and 2009 and the maximum for 2010 are markedly higher than those for 2007, supporting the notion of a rapid rebound from 2007.

7. The minimum value for 2010 is, however, slightly below that of 2009. This was due to the aforementioned warmer winds from northern Asia and western Russia, which not only resulted in a significant melt but pushed the icesheets towards Canada and Greenland – compressing them at the same time.

8. Minimum Arctic sea ice occurred on September 10, 2010 (based on data supplied by JAXA and DMI).
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Slide 153
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Area & Extent
(source: NANSEN, 23 Sep 2011)
Area
  Extent

Notes

1. Minimum Arctic sea ice area and extent for 2011 occurred some time between the 7th and 8th September 2011 – more than two weeks before the Autumnal solstice.

2. As can be seen by the graphs, the minimum sea ice area was greater than 2007 and comparable with that for 2008, whilst the sea ice extent was greater than both 2007 and 2008.

3. Source: NORSEX SSM/I graphs for the Spring Equinox of 2011 (23 September).
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Slide 154
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Anomaly & Area
    

Notes

1. Status Update for the Arctic sea ice anomaly and area at 24 September 2011 – one day after the Autumnal equinox. Minimum sea ice occurred early in the month – between the 7th and 8th September (2011).
2. Source: The Cryosphere Today. Published by University of Illinois.
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Slide 155
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
(DMI – Update for September 23, 2011)

Notes

1. A third source of Arctic sea ice data is provided by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). By way of contrast to NORSEX, the DMI graph for sea ice extent is based on a concentration of 30% or more. It affirms that minimum sea ice extent occurred some time between the 7th and 8th September.

2. Note the sea ice extent for 2011 at the time of the Autumnal Equinox was greater than 2007, but less than 2008 to 2010. However, this observation differs from that of NORSEX SSM/I, which depicts a minimum extent greater than 2007 and 2008.

3. Source: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Copenhagen and dated September 23, 2011.
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156..157
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Extent & Volume

Question:        But what of sea ice volume?

Answer:          Arctic sea ice volume has increased by 25% since May 2008
– in spite of PIOMAS claims of an accelerated reduction in sea ice volume


Notes

1. Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) has suggested that Arctic sea ice volume has plummeted – consistent with predictions of a "tipping point" in summer melt. However, this is now thought to be due to the creation of a new algorithm by NASA, which is being used to synthetically create Channel 4 data on the Aqua satellite, to compensate for the fact that this channel failed in December 2007.

2. Dr. David Barber of the University of Manitoba – a long time advocate of AGW – has conceded that the satellite is now generating unreliable results. However, his observations were limited to observations of ice thickness at the southern end of the Beaufort Sea – immediately north of the NW end of Canada's Northwest Territories. His inspection of the Beaufort Sea was carried out in September 2009 – at the time of maximum melt and coinciding with the summer solstice). PIC2 records of this region of the Arctic reveal significant melt-back in the Beaufort Sea near the coast of the Territories – but this is no different to any normal year. There is, however, evidence of encroaching ice mass further into the Beaufort Sea.

3. The volume is not always a reliable measure of concentration – especially when rebounds are involved – since there has been insufficient time for the ice to compact.

4. The thickness of ice is documented by the US Navy. Forecasts of ice sheet thickness are made daily – Polar Ice Projections System 2.0 (or PIPS2).
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Slide 158
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Volume
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Slide 158a
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Volume


Notes

1. Watts, A., Goddard, S., 2010. Arctic Ice Volume has Increased 25% since May 2008. WUWT dated May 29, 2010.

2. Source: ...navy.mil/...pips2_thick_2008052700.gif (for 2008).

3. Source: ...navy.mil/...pips2_thick_2010052700.gif (for 2010).
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Slide 159
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007 to 2009 – Autumnal Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. The PIPS 2.0 comparators are based on forecasts for the 2007 (September 23) and 2008 and 2009 (September 22). These dates coincide with the Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The dates also coincide – albeit approximately – with Minimum Sea Ice Extent.

2. These images suggest that there is a lag in the consolidation of the ice pack – even when the extent of sea ice is increasing across the Arctic region. The compaction will continue in coming years and we will start to see more red and yellow appearing at the time of the Summer Solstice.
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Slide 160
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007 cf. 2010 – Autumnal Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. The PIPS 2.0 forecasts coincide with the Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere in 2007 & 2010 (23 September).

2. The Autumnal Equinox has been adopted for comparison purposes, given that it constitutes the approximate time of Minimum Sea Ice Extent (although the actual timing can occur up to 10-days beforehand – that is, anywhere between the 11th and 21st of September).
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Slide 161
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2009 cf. 2010 – Autumnal Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. Note that, in spite of the decline in sea ice extent at the time of the Autumnal Equinox (i.e., minimum sea ice extent), there is significantly more mid-range sea ice (coloured green) present to the north of Greenland and Nunavut in Canada.

2. Graphical outputs from the US Navy's Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS 2.0) computer model.

3. Source: Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at NASA's Stennis Space Centre (SSC).

4. Graphs are from the http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/
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Slide 162
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007, 2008 & 2009 – Winter Solstice (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. By the time of the Winter Solstice the Arctic ice pack is expanding.

2. Note the decline in the area of maximum thickness (red, orange and yellow colouring between 2007 and 2008) followed by stasis in 2009; suggesting that the deterioration of the Arctic icepack is "bottoming out."
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Slide 163
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007 cf. 2010 – Winter Solstice (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. Note that whilst the above comparison reveals a reduction in the thickest ice (depicted red, orange and yellow), the extent of mid-range thickness has expanded between 2007 and 2010.

2. Graphical outputs from the US Navy's Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS 2.0) computer model.

3. Source: Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at NASA's Stennis Space Centre (SSC).

4. Graphs are from the http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/
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Slide 164
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2009 cf. 2010 – Winter Solstice (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. Note the slight increase at the high-end of ice thickness (red, orange and yellow) to the north of Greenland as well as the expansion in mid-range ice pack (coloured green) that has taken place between 2009 and 2010. This suggests that the Arctic ice pack is starting to thicken (again).
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Slide 165
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007 to 2009 – Spring Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. The PIPS 2.0 comparators of sea ice thickness are based on forecasts for 2007 (March 21) and 2008 and 2009 (March 20), which coincide with the Northern Hemisphere Spring Equinox. It also approximates maximum sea ice extent for each of the three years.
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Slide 166
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007 & 2011 – Spring Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. The two PIPS 2.0 comparators are based on forecasts for the 2007 (21 March) and 2011 (20 March). These dates coincide with Spring Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.

2. Note that there is substantially more green coverage in the Arctic Sea in 2011 than in 2007 – indicating a rebound in the Arctic sea ice volume since 2007. This is, however, offset (in part) by a loss of thicker, red and yellow ice pack to the north of Greenland and Nunavut.
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Slide 167
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2009 & 2011 – Spring Equinox (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. Note the significant increase in high-end (coloured red, orange and yellow) and mid-range (green) ice thickness in the Arctic sea ice pack.
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Slide 168
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007, 2008 & 2009 – Summer Solstice (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. U.S. Navy PIPS sea ice thickness data forecast for the Arctic region for 2007 (21 June), 2008 (20 June) and 2009 (21 June). These dates coincide with the Summer Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere.

2. Note the change in the extent of green and displacement of blue colours – indicating a build-up of the ice pack between 2008 and 2009.

3. See also: Goddard, S., Watts , A., 2010. Arctic Ice Volume has Increased 25% since May 2008. WUWT dated May 29, 2010.

4. Temperatures in sub-Arctic (cooler) latitudes were moderated by an intense El Niño event in the Northern Pacific in 2007 – which resulted in increased rainfall and destruction of the ice pack in these regions.
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Slide 169
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2007 cf. 2011 – Summer Solstice (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. Note the similarity in overall form of the Arctic ice sheet in 2007 and 2011.

2. Graphical outputs from the US Navy's Polar Ice Prediction System (PIPS 2.0) computer model.

3. Source: Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) at NASA's Stennis Space Centre (SSC).

4. Graphs are from the http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/
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Slide 170
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

2009 cf. 2011 – Summer Solstice (Northern Hemisphere)
     

Notes

1. Note the substantial increase in mid-range thick (green) sea ice and the development of high-end (red, orange and yellow) ice along the northern coastline of Greenland and Latitude 80° N above Alaska. Put simply, recovery is under way.

2. Also of significance is the manner in which the sea ice is reaching down the east coast of Greenland.
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Slide 171
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness & Volume


  • In recent years there has been much debate concerning the accuracy of PIOMAS estimates of Arctic sea ice volume


  • PIPS 2.0 graphs enable crude determinations of changes in volume of Arctic sea ice over time


  • It has recently (Jan-2011) been estimated that Arctic sea ice volume increased some 70 trillion cu. ft. between 2009 and 2011


  • Furthermore, Goddard has noted that the PIPS distribution curves for March 2008 and March 2011 indicate a shift towards thicker, mid-range sea ice in the Arctic (from predominantly thin ice)


  • More recently, ESA's CyroSat-2 has commenced operation and is now producing detailed assessments of sea ice thickness for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
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Slide 171a
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness & Volume

Notes

1. PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice Volume Model Corrected – Still Appears Suspect. Published on line at WUWT and dated 28 June 2011.

2. Note that PIOMAS (Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modelling & Assimilation System) is a predictive model, based on SST and, therefore, not based on empirical measurements. If the SSTs prove incorrect or questionable, then so too do the estimates of sea ice volume.

3. At least one attempt has been made to assess recent changes in Arctic sea ice volume by means of visual comparison of PIPS 2.0 mapping – with a view to determining areas of thickening between January 2009, January 2010 and January 2011 and between September 2008, September 2009 and September 2010.

4. Refer: (surname missing from referenced document), K., 2011. 70 Trillion cubic feet of new Arctic Ice. Published on line (January 24, 2011) at http://modernsurvivalblog.com/weather-preparedness.

5. More accurate volumetric analyses using PIPS 2.0 graphics have been predicated on comparative pixel counts for individual depth ranges.

6. Goddard, S., 2011. Huge Increase in Thick Ice Over the Last Three Years. Published at Real Science on 25 March 2011.

7. The European Space Agency's (ESA) CryoSat-2 programme, by way of contrast, measures sea ice thickness with reference to sea level. Accordingly, it affords the best opportunity to determine with any degree of precision Arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice volume.
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Slide 172
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice Thickness & Volume

Notes

1. Pixel count based on PIPS 2 images for March 25 in 2008 and 2011 reveals a significant drift towards mid-range thick ice.

2. Source: Goddard, S., 2011. Huge Increase in Thick Ice Over the Last Three Years. Published at Real Science on 25 March 2011.
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Slide 173
   

Notes

1. A comparison between the PIPS 2.0 images for the Autumnal equinox (Northern Hemisphere) in 2007 and 2008 and the NRL/Hycom image for 2011. Note the expansion of the ice pack to the north of the Queen Elizabeth Islands (Nunavut, Canada) and along the northern coastline of Greenland.

2. The PIPS 2.0 comparators (LH and RH images) are based on forecasts for the years 2007 (23 Sept) and 2008 (22 Sept). These dates coincide with the Autumnal Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. The dates also coincide, albeit approximately, with Minimum Sea Ice Extent.

3. These images suggest that there is a lag in the consolidation of the ice pack – even when the extent of sea ice increases across the Arctic region. The compaction continued through to 2009 – at which time a turning point was reached. Subsequently, the compacted ice sheet began to expand (once again).

4. Source: Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) & NASA's Stennis Space Centre (SSC). PIPS images from www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/pips2/ithi.html. NRL/Hycom image from www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticictn.html.
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Slide 174
    

Notes

1. Artist's impression of the CryoSat-2 satellite and first image produced by CryoSat-2 – covering January/February 2011.
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175..176
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Question:
Why is ice pack melt greatest on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean ?
Answer 1:
Areas of greatest melt coincide with regions of warmer waters – which, in turn, coincide with shallower continental shelves around the edges of the Arctic Ocean
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Slide 177
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt
    

Notes

1. Note the close coincidence between the record melt-back in September 2007 and the shallow (and, therefore, warmer waters) of the continental shelves around the Arctic Ocean.

2. Source (LH image): IBCAO Poster (JPEG version).

3. Source (RH image): Cryosphere Today image for the Autumnal equinox in 2007 (September 23).
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Slide 178
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Question:
Why is ice pack melt greatest on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean ?
Answer 2:
The sources of these warm waters are: the North Atlantic and Norwegian Currents (primary conveyors) and the Alaska Current, along with the Alaska Coast Current and Alaskan Stream (secondary conveyors) – which convey warmer waters from the tropics and mid-latitudes.

Notes

1. The primary conveyor of warm water into the Arctic Ocean is the Norwegian Current, which launches from the North Atlantic Current and the Gulf Stream. The Alaska Current takes advantage of El Niño events in the Pacific Ocean; intensifying the delivery of warm water to the Arctic Ocean.
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Slide 179
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt
 

Notes

1. The primary conveyor of warm water into the Arctic Ocean is the Norwegian Atlantic Current.
2. Source (left-hand image): Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI).

3. The primary conveyor of warm water from the Northern Pacific is the Alaskan Current.
4. Source (right-hand image): Open Planet Ideas.
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Slide 180
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Question:
Why is ice pack melt greatest on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean ?
Answer 3:
A chain of active submarine volcanos exist along the Nansen-Gakkel Ridge – which runs between Greenland and Siberia . The ridge is noted for huge amounts of hydrothermal venting and pyroclastic eruptions of magma – both of which generate massive quantities of superheated (and possibly juvenile) water.

Notes

1. Source (hydrothermal venting): Edmonds, H.H., Michael, P.J., Baker, E.T., Connelly, D.P., Snow, J.E., Langmuir, C.H., Dick, H.J.B., Mhe, R., German, C.R., Graham, D.W., 2003. Discovery of abundant hydrothermal venting on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel ridge in the Arctic Ocean. Nature, 421:252-256. Published 16 January 2003.

2. Source (volcanic eruptions): Sohn, R.A., Willis, C., Humphris, S., Shank, T.M., Singh, H., Edmonds, H.N., Kunz, C., Hedman, U., Helmke, E., Jakuba, M., Liljebladh, B., Linder, J., Murphy, C., Nakamura, K., Sato, T., Schlindwein, V., Stranne, C., Tausenfreund, M., Upchurch, L., Winsor, P., Jakobsson, M., Soule, A., 2008. Explosive volcanism on the ultraslow-spreading Gakkel Ridge, Arctic Ocean. Nature, 453(7199):1236-1238.

3. See also: Fire Under Arctic Ice: Volcanoes Have Been Blowing Their Tops in The Deep Ocean. Science Daily, 26 June 2008.

4. See also: Volcanic eruptions reshape Arctic ocean floor – study. AFP dated 25 June 2008.

5. See also: Fire under the ice – International expedition discovers gigantic volcanic eruption in the Arctic Ocean. http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-06/haog-fut062508.php
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Slide 181
    

Notes

1. Source (left image): Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) http://www.divediscover.whoi.edu/exhibition11/index.html

2. Source (right image): Pyroclastic deposits from the Gakkel Ridge region of the Arctic Ocean. Figure 2 of the Sohn et al Nature article dated 26 June 2008. The material is thought to have been produced by a volcanic explosion between 1999 and 2001.

3. See also: http://www.iceagenow.com/Eruptions_as_big_as_Pompeii_under_Arctic_ice.htm Published 26 Nov 2010.
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Slide 182
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt

  • Extensive continental shelving to the north of Scandinavia, the USSR and Siberia (incl. East Siberian, Laptev, Kara and Barents Shelves)


  • Channelling of warm, juvenile water from the Nansen-Gakkel Ridge into these shallow regions of the Arctic Ocean may exacerbate ice melt along the Russian and Siberian coastline
     


Notes

1. The eruption coincided with a swarm of earthquakes beneath the Arctic Ocean between 1999 and 2001.

2. Refer to: Strata, A.J., 2008. Global Warming – or Simply Massive Under Sea Volcanoes? http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/5589
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Slide 183
Characteristics of the Annual Arctic Sea Ice Melt
Question:
Why is ice pack melt greatest on the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean ?
Answer 4:
Heat generated over northern Siberia and the USSR during the summer months is carried northwards into the adjoining Arctic Ocean basin – raising airborne temperatures above the relatively shallow continental shelf waters and rapidly melting the remains of the ice sheet that developed during the preceding winter.

Notes

1. Melt-back is intensified when high-pressure systems remain stationary for significant periods of time in the mid- to high-latitudes. Such events are referred to as "high-pressure blocking" (e.g., the Russian summer of 2010) and are particularly prevalent in the latter half of the Northern Hemisphere summer.

2. Refer: Watts , A., 2010. NOAA on the Russian heat wave: blocking high, not global warming. WUWT dated 19 August 2010.

3. Heat generated over the Alaskan and NE Siberian land masses is likely to account for the rapidity of the melting of the polar ice cap in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas during the Northern Hemisphere's summer months. Needless to say, this will be intensified during El Niño events.
Details: www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm
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Slide 184
Recent Changes in Arctic Temperature

NASA/NCDC (1951-2010)

Notes

1. Graph depicts (concocted) Surface Temperature Anomalies for the globe, including the Arctic (top of each graph).

2. Note the progressive warming between 1998, 2005 and 2010 in the NASA/NCDC graph – suggesting a dramatic warming trend in the Arctic.

3. This warming trend is due to the removal of weather station data from the analysis and substitution of proxy temperatures from more remote regions south of the polar icecap.

4. Source: NASA/NCDC
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Slide 184a
Recent Changes in Arctic Temperature

DMI (1958-2010)

Notes

5. The DMI graph shows the very opposite – with a progressive cooling trend over the last half century.

6. The difference in trend is because the DMI include polar (buoy-based) weather station data sets.

7. Source: Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)
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Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique?

You are viewing Part 4
Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures 142..184a

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

Go to Part 8 296..360      • What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide • The "Precautionary Principle" • Summary • Postscripts

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