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Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 5 of 8






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Slide 185
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperatures
Question:
But what of temperatures in the Antarctic and the state of the Antarctic ice sheet in the Southern Hemisphere?
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Slide 186
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperature
  

Notes

1. The Antarctic Peninsula has become the focus of temperature determinations for the continent.

2. The peninsula is known to be a "hot-spot" on an otherwise bitterly cold continent. The Antarctic Peninsula is the beneficiary of warm winds from the Pacific tropics. These winds are known as "Rossby Wave Trains".

3. It is also subject to volcanic activity and oceanic warming caused by submarine volcanos.
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Slide 187
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperature
NASA's 1982-2004 Map
   NASA's 1982-2007 Map
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Slide 188
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperatures


  • Conflicting NASA stories concerning temperature change in the Antarctic
  • • The 1982-2004 map shows significant cooling across most of the continent

    • The 1982-2007 map shows substantially more warming than cooling
Question:        Which do you believe?
Answer:
Look to the lower troposphere above the continent – which reveals significant cooling between 1978 and 2006 – in keeping with the first NASA map

Notes

1. Goddard, S., 2010. NASA still spreading Antarctic worries. February 03, 2010. WUWT.

2. Goddard, S., 2010. NSIDC Reports That Antarctica is Cooling and Sea Ice is Increasing. Report dated March 08, 2010. WUWT.

3. Parts of the Antarctic Peninsula are noted for volcanic activity – which impacts temperature of the surrounding Southern Ocean to the north of the peninsula and the Bellingshausen and Weddell Seas west and east of the peninsula.
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Slide 189

Notes

1. Source: University of Alabama, Huntsville – Satellite Data – Deg/Decade Trends between 12/1978 and 11/2006.

2. Goddard, S., 2010. NSIDC Reports that Antarctica is Cooling and Sea Ice is Increasing. March 08, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 190
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperatures and Sea Ice Extent
Question:

How does NASA explain the difference between the two maps?


Answer:

NASA and Zhang (Journal of Climate) points to a warming trend in the Southern Ocean

     

Notes

1. Zhang, J., 2007. Increasing Antarctic Sea Ice under Warming and Atmospheric Oceanic Conditions. Journal of Climate, vol. 20, p. 2517 (Fig. 2), June 01, 2007.

2. See also: NSIDC Newsletter dated March 03, 2010 and in particular the graph depicting Southern Hemisphere Extent Anomalies Feb 2010.
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Slide 191
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperatures and Sea Ice Extent
Question:
How does one reconcile expanding sea ice extent and rising temperatures in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica?

[Note: There is a logical inconsistency here]

Answer:
The answer takes us back to the issue of the missing data sets for oceanic and continental weather stations:
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Slide 192
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperatures and Sea Ice Extent


  • Number of active weather stations on the Antarctic continent feeding into the GHCN fell from 110 in 1961, down to 92 in 1990, 85 in 1997, 77 in 1998, before plunging to 34 in 2003, followed by a brief increase to 54 back in 2005, then back down to 33 in 2008 before settling at 18 in 2009


  • The remaining weather station data sets are either coastally-based or on the warmer (volcanic) Antarctic Peninsula


  • The number of oceanic based stations has also declined (albeit slightly)


  • Put simply, the increase in temperature has been manufactured by removing cooler Antarctic interior data sets and substituting proxy figures

Notes

1. Smith, E.M., 2009. GHCN – Antarctica: Ice on the Rocks. Dated November 02, 2009.

2. Id, J., 2009. GHCN – Antarctica: Careful selection of data. Dated December 11, 2009.
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Slide 193
Contrasting GISS and UAH Records of
Recent Antarctic Temperature Trends

Notes

1. Tisdale, R., 2009. A Comprehensive Comparison of GISS and UAH global temperature data. June 24, 2009. WUWT.
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Slide 194
Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
March 1980 – 3.5 million sq km

  March 2009 – 5.0 million sq km

  March 2010 – 4.0 million sq km


Notes

1. Doran, P.T., et al, 2002. Antarctic climate cooling and terrestrial ecosystem response. Nature, 415:517-520.

2. Goddard, S., 2010. NSIDC Reports that Antarctica is Cooling and Sea Ice is Increasing. March 08, 2010. WUWT.

3. Note that minimum sea-ice extent for the Southern Ocean (i.e., Antarctic region) usually takes place in March of each year – that is, coinciding with the Autumnal equinox.
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Slide 195
Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
March 1980 – 3.5 million sq km

  March 2007 – 4.1 million sq km

  March 2011 – 3.6 million sq km


Notes

1. Note (again) the total sea ice extent in 1980 was 3.5 million sq. km. The figure for this year is 3.6 million sq. km; slightly down on the figures for 2007 (4.1 million sq. km.) and 2010 (4.0 million sq. km.) and significantly down on the figure for 2009 (5.0 million sq. km.)

2. Sources (1980 & 2010): National Snow & Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) – Southern Hemisphere Monthly Sea Ice. http://climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#

3. Source (2011): University of Colorado, Boulder. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Mar/S-201103_extn.png
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Slide 196
Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

Notes

1. Source: National Snow & Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) dated March 03, 2010.

2. Goddard, S., 2010. NSIDC Reports that Antarctica is Cooling and Sea Ice is Increasing. March 08, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 197
Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

Notes

1. Note the record anomaly in November 2010.

2. The slope has dropped from 2.9 (+/-3.0) % per decade in the preceding graph (April 2010) down to 0.6 (+/-0.7) % per decade (November 2010). The precision levels in both instances are meaningless.

3. The monthly mean has gone up from 7.3 million sq km (April 2010) up to 16.2 million sq km (November).

4. In both instances the trend line is increasing – that is to say, the anomaly has shifted from a negative one prior to the mid-1990s to a positive one more recently.
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Slide 198
Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
September 2007 – 19.2 million sq km

  September 2008 – 18.5 million sq km

  September 2009 – 19.1 million sq km


Notes

1. Source: National Snow & Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) – Southern Hemisphere Monthly Sea Ice. http://climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#
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Slide 199
Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
September 2009 – 19.1 million sq km

  September 2010 – 19.2 million sq km

   


Notes

1. Source: National Snow & Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) – Southern Hemisphere Monthly Sea Ice. http://climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#
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Slide 200
Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice Extent
Nov 2010 – 16.9 million sq km


Notes

1. Southern Ocean (Antarctic) sea ice extent for November 2010 – a record of 16.90 million sq km. Exceeds the previous record for November of 16.76 million set in 2005.

2. This was not the only month to experience a record high (maximum sea ice extent.)

3. A record for the satellite era (1979-2010) was also established in the month of July, 2010.
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Slide 201
    

Notes

1. Graphical depiction of the sea ice anomaly anchored to the median for the period 1979-2008 and sea ice area in the Southern Ocean off Antarctica over the past 32 years.
2. Note the generally upward trend in sea ice anomaly (now largely positive year-round) and sea ice area over the same period.

3. Source: Cryosphere Today images from 24 September 2011, one day after the Autumnal equinox.

4. The highest Southern Ocean (Antarctic) sea ice extent in the satellite era took place in September 2007 – ironically the same year that the Arctic was in meltdown.
5. Is there a message here? Could expansion of a polar ice sheet be taking place in one hemisphere whilst the opposite (contraction) is taking place in the other hemisphere?
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Slide 202
Approaching Maximum Sea Ice Extent in Antarctica – 2011
23 September 2011
   

Notes

1. Left – NSIDC image indicates that sea ice extent one day after the Spring equinox is slightly above the long-term average. However, the Antarctic ice sheet is still expanding.
Source: http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/S_bm_extent_hires.png 24-Sept-2011.

2. Centre – Cryosphere Today image one day after the Spring equinox for the Southern Hemisphere (24 September 2011).
Source: climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#Southern Hemisphere Monthly Sea Ice

3. Right – denotes the long-term median for Southern Ocean (Antarctic) sea ice extent for September covering the period from November 1978 through to September 2011. However, it should be noted that, after declining slightly after the autumn equinox, sea ice extent began increasing again in the last week of September and on into October – though not exceeding the maximum figure for sea ice extent in 2011 (18.95 million km2).
Source: climate4you.com/SeaIce.htm#Southern Hemisphere Monthly Sea Ice 10-Oct-2011.
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Slide 203
Warming Along the Antarctic Peninsula & NW Coast


  • Whilst the island continent of Antarctica has been cooling for the past 50 years, the northwest corner of the continent has been experiencing a modest degree of warming


  • The area running counter to the general cooling trend includes the Antarctic Peninsula and part of the adjoining Northwest Coastline


  • These are the only regions of the Antarctic to be experiencing "genuine" warming

Notes

1. Let's return to the "warming" that appears to be taking place on the Antarctic Peninsula and along the Northwest Antarctic coastline.
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204..205
Warming Along the Antarctic Peninsula & NW Coast

Question:
What could be triggering the "warming" along the Antarctic Peninsula and Northwest Antarctic coastline?
Answer:
Several factors are at play here, including:
• Localised land-based and off-shore vulcanism,
• Submarine vulcanism, and
• "Rossby Wave Train" processes.
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Slide 206

  • The northern extremity of the Antarctic Peninsula is also particularly prone to vulcanism as are sections of West Antarctica and the South Sandwich Islands – ENE of the Peninsula .
     

Notes

1. Source (centre): USGS – Antarctica Volcanoes and Volcanics. http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Antarctica/description_antarctica_volcanoes.html

2. Source (left and right): Antarctic Peninsula/West Antarctic Region. http://appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/RS_AntarcticPeninsula.htm
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Slide 207
  • However, vulcanism is not limited to the Antarctic mainland. In a recent press release (see below) scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) announced the discovery of a previously unknown chain of submarine volcanos on the western side of the South Sandwich Islands Trench. These active volcanos are in relatively close proximity to the eastern side of the relatively warm Antarctic Peninsula.
     

Notes

3. Source: Press Release – Underwater Antarctic volcanoes discovered in the Southern Ocean. www.antarctica.ac.uk/.../press_release.php?id+1541
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Slide 208
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperature



  • Also, "Rossby wave trains" travel pole-ward from the Central Pacific tropics. This phenomenon exists in both hemispheres and is triggered by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropics of the Central Pacific.


  • The Rossby wave-train brings warm, moist air from the tropics into the Amundsen Sea (adjacent to West Antarctica ) during winter and spring.


  • The warming has been observed over a period of three decades (specifically, since the late-1970s) – a period dominated by El Niño events.


  • Now that we are entering a cooler period – dominated by strong La Niña events – it will be interesting to see if the "warming" transitions into "cooling" in West Antarctica.

Notes

1. Source: Ding, Q., Steig, E., Battisti, D.S., K&_uuml;ttel, M., 2011. Winter warming in West Antarctica caused by Central tropical Pacific warming. Nature Geoscience, DOI:doi:10.1038/ngeo1129.

2. See also: Watts , A., 2011. Steig on Antarctic warming: "Rossby wave trains". WUWT dated 11 April 2011.

3. Refers: Stricherz, V., 2011. West Antarctic warming triggered by warmer sea surface in tropical Pacific. University of Washington press release dated April 10, 2011.
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Slide 208a
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperature
 
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Slide 209
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperature



  • The Antarctic Peninsula and, to a lesser extent, the West Antarctic coastline have been the subject of warming over the past three decades. This stands in marked contrast to the remainder of the continent. Several factors are at play here. The first is the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which circles the island continent.


  • Scientists have recently noted that the sea surface temperature varies along its circuit. Curiously, the SST warms by as much as 2-3° C above the average at two locations along the circuit, whilst at two other locations the temperatures dip below the average by the same amount.


  • One of the locations coincides with a point slightly west of the Antarctic Peninsula.


  • It is possible that the "Pacific Ring of Fire" is not confined to the extremities of the Pacific basin, but extends down into the Southern Ocean – encapsulating parts of Antarctica (including the Antarctic Peninsula, parts of West Antarctica and the South Sandwich Islands) before linking back to the western arm of the Circum-Pacific Belt near New Zealand. This could well account for the two "hot-spots" off the Antarctic coast.

Notes

1. Source: http://www.parks.tas.gov.au/fahan_mi_shipwrecks/infohut/acc.htm
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Slide 209a
Recent Changes in Antarctic Temperature
  
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| Home | Contact |

Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique?

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

You are viewing Part 5
Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures 185..209a

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

Go to Part 8 296..360      • What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide • The "Precautionary Principle" • Summary • Postscripts

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11-01-2012 07:36:24 044789 //v6