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Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 6 of 8






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Slide 210
Recent Reversal of Glacial Retreating Trend


  • Glaciers are described as gravitating "rivers of ice"


  • Glaciers fall into two broad categories:
  • Terrestrial glaciers – which do not reach the sea
       and are confined to continental land masses
    Tidewater glaciers – which reach the sea
  • Glaciers are either advancing or retreating


  • The IPCC's Assessment Reports argue that most of the earth's glaciers are currently retreating and that this is due to climate change (i.e., AGW). But are these assertions true?
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Slide 211
Recent Reversal of Glacial Retreating Trend


  • Typical Alaskan glaciers (opp.) at Glacier Bay


  • Rendu Glacier (Upper) is now a terrestrial glacier, but was once a tidewater glacier feeding into Glacier Bay


  • Margerie Glacier (Lower) is a tidewater glacier


  • Both are currently advancing
     


Notes

1. Photos taken 06/06/2009 by the presenter.
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Slide 212

     
Recent Reversal of Glacial Retreating Trend


  • Two more Alaskan Glaciers


  • Hubbard Glacier (Upper L, photo taken in 2008)


  • Johns Hopkins Glacier (Lower L)


  • Both are currently advancing


  • Hubbard Glacier blocks the entrance to Russell Fiord, creating "Russell Lake" whilst advancing at 7-feet/day


  • Johns Hopkins Glacier has been advancing since 1929
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Slide 213
Recent Reversal of Glacial Retreating Trend

Notes

1. The Berlingske Glacier in Greenland has advanced almost five kilometres in the past 94 years. The glacier is of the tidewater type – flowing into NW Greenland's Granville Fjord; contradicting the view that all of Greenland's glaciers are retreating.

2. Source: Aagaard, L.H., Dawes, P.R., 2010. Berlingske er mere cool end Politiken. July 26, 2010.

3. http://www.berlingske.dk/viden/berlingske-er-mere-cool-end-politiken
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Slide 214
    

Notes

1. Recent formation of floating ice island following calving of Petermann Glacier in Greenland.

2. The Petermann Glacier is a tidewater glacier and has been advancing since 2002. It was only a matter of time before calving occurred.

3. The calving was due to a submarine obstruction and the ice island is now drifting towards the Nares Strait.

4. The island, itself, will potentially cause a compaction of sea ice in the Nares Strait.

5. Source: Left diagram prepared by Andreas Muenchow, University of Delaware.

6. Source: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov...crefl2.

7. See also: Lockerby, P., 2010. Petermann Glacier Calving 2010 – Update. Article dated August 11, 2010 and downloaded from Science20.com web site.
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Slide 215
Recent Reversal of Glacial Retreating Trend


  • Southern Alps of New Zealand home to 50 glaciers – all are currently advancing (including Franz Josef and Fox glaciers) after a prolonged period of retreat


  • 230 Himalayan glaciers in the Karakoram Range and Hindu Kush are all growing rapidly


  • Bolivia's Chacaltaya glacier is once again growing, after years of rapid retreat


  • Argentina's spectacular Perito Moreno glacier is advancing


  • In fact, 90% of the earth's glaciers are currently advancing (again) or static

Notes

1. Felix, R., 2010. Our glaciers are growing, not melting. More falsehoods from Al Gore. Ice Age Now report dated March 08, 2010.
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Slide 216
Declining Polar Bear Populations – Fact or Fiction?
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217..218
Declining Polar Bear Populations – Fact or Fiction?


  • 1950s and 60s estimates of the population of Canadian and Alaskan polar bears – approx. 5,000 and these creatures were facing imminent extinction


  • Reinvention of claim in Al Gore's film, "An Inconvenient Truth" (2006) and article by Kate Devlin in the UK Telegraph, dated 11.09.2009


  • Polar bears would be extinct within 70 years due to global warming
Question:

What is currently happening with polar bear populations?


Notes

1. Myers, Kirk, 2010. Canada's growing polar bear population 'becoming a problem', locals say. (Seminole) Examiner, January 05, 2010.

2. Sources suggested that the polar bear population was estimated at 5,000, with a degree of uncertainty that ranged up to 10,000. Most estimates at the time indicated that the lower figure was probably closer to the mark.
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Slide 219
Declining Polar Bear Populations – Fact or Fiction?

Answer:

Polar bear populations are doing fine. In fact, they are increasing and increasing rapidly in nearly all Arctic regions of Canada and Alaska

  • Canadian and Alaskan populations have quintupled in the past 50 to 60 years (source: PBSG)


  • Now a protected species (harvest quotas enacted)


  • Colder Arctic conditions in Canada and Alaska now driving them into towns (rummaging through garbage bins)
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Slide 219a
Declining Polar Bear Populations – Fact or Fiction?






Notes

1. Booker, C., 2009. Polar Bear Expert Barred by Warmists. Telegraph (UK) dated June 26, 2009.

2. Dr. Mitchell Taylor, who has been researching the status of polar bears for 30 years, suggests that only two of 19 sub-populations have declined and the rest are either stable or increasing.

3. Myers, Kirk, 2010. Canada's growing polar bear population 'becoming a problem,' locals say. (Seminole) Examiner, January 05, 2010.

4. Watts, A., 2009. The "precarious state of the U.S. polar bear population." WUWT, dated May 09, 2009.

5. Langan, F., 2007. Canadian controversy: how do polar bears fare? Christian Science Monitor dated May 03, 2007.

6. Source: Population status reviews. Polar Bear Specialist Group (PBSG), dated February 10, 2009.
This site indicates that the present polar bear population lies somewhere between 20,000 and 25,000 – 4 to 5 times that observed in the 1950s.

7. There are nineteen (19) discrete sub-populations spread across the Arctic regions of the earth.

8. According to the PBSG website, numbers for five regional subpopulations (principally in Russia) are unknown. One (West Hudson Bay) appears to be declining. However, these figures were based on models based on the likely effects of declining reproduction rates and with huge uncertainties – not actual field counts.
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Slide 220
Beaching of Arctic Walruses – Another AGW Myth
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Slide 221
Beaching of Arctic Walruses – Another AGW Myth


  • Mass beaching of tens of thousands of arctic walruses (Odobenus Rosmarus) along the northwest coast of Alaska in September 2010 – for the third year running


  • Scientists of AGW persuasion argue that the beaching is due to the absence of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea (north of the Bering Strait)


  • However, walruses migrate south to avert the Arctic winter


  • Ice is the walruses enemy (not its friend)


  • The expanding Arctic ice-pack will potentially overtake these migrating creatures – forcing them to cluster in mass huddles (to keep warm)
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Slide 222

The story is not dissimilar at the other end of the Earth, where emperor penguins (Aptenodytes Forsteri) also mass together in huddles in order to survive the severe Antarctic winters

     

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Slide 223
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?

Notes

1. Goddard, S., 2010. If Sea Level was Rising, Wouldn't Someone Have Noticed? May 01, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 224
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?


  • The argument goes something like this: AGW is causing:
  • • Glaciers to melt;
    • Arctic ice cap to melt;
    • Antarctic Ice Sheet to melt;
    • Antarctic sea ice to melt;
    • Greenland Ice Sheet to melt;
  • This will inevitably lead to rising sea levels and catastrophic flooding of coastal regions and cities

Notes

1. One of Al Gore's favourite shock arguments – depicting the flooding of the Bay Area and downtown area of San Francisco. A seven to eight metre rise in sea level would see parts of the San Francisco CBD (including Fisherman's Wharf, Embarcadero and the downtown district of the city) disappear under water. Ironically, Gore has purchased a condominium apartment in a skyscraper on the corner of Third Street and Mission Street. The entrance to the lobby would be under water if sea levels rose eight metres.
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Slide 225
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?


  • As we have already seen:

    • 90% of glaciers are now expanding due to global cooling


    • Arctic sea ice is returning to normal from a recent low in 2007


    • The Antarctic is getting colder and as a consequence, the continental ice sheet is expanding


    • The sea ice surrounding Antarctica is also growing (expanding)


    • The Greenland ice sheet is also growing in response to falling temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere

Notes

1. Felix, R., 2010. Our glaciers are growing, not melting. More falsehoods from Al Gore. Ice Age Now report dated March 08, 2010.
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226..227
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?


Question:

What would we expect to be happening in a period of global cooling?

Answer:

The very opposite of what the AGW advocates are saying is happening at the moment.

The sea levels should be lowering (albeit slightly) in response to lower global temperatures and more ice being locked away in Antarctica and Greenland.

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Slide 228
Recent Flattening in Sea Level Change
  

Notes

1. Global sea level has been rising since the end of the so-called Pleistocene (post-Flood) Ice Age.

2. The above graphs point to an apparent flattening approximately 2,000 years ago.

3. However, the "flat-line" conceals fluctuations in response to changes in global temperature.

4. Source: Current Sea Level Change. Wikipedia.
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Slide 229
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?

Notes

1. Sullivan, J., 2010. Oceangate: sea levels proven to have fallen for past six years. 17.02.2010. Climategate.com.

2. Pacific Ocean – Sea Levels Falling. July 04, 2005. Ice Age Now.

3. Indian Ocean – sea levels falling. Ice Age Now. Refers to:

4. Mörner, Nils-Axel, Tootley, Michael and Possnert, Göran, 2004. New Perspectives for the future of the Maldives. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 40, Issues 1-2, Jan 2004, pp. 177-182.

5. Arctic Sea Level Falling. June 15, 2006. Ice Age Now.
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Slide 230
    
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?

Notes

1. Note that both of the above graphs – sourced from the University of Colorado (left) and a composite plot by RomanM published at WUWT (right) do not incorporate data for 2011. Both, however, indicate a recent and significant downward trend from late 2009.
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Slide 231
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?

Notes

1. Two overlain plots of recent assessment of Steric Sea Level – i.e., mean sea level determinations based exclusively on thermal expansion and salinity variation principles.

2. The grey plot is by Willis et al (2008) and predicated on a cooling trend since 2004.

3. The black plot is based on work by Leuliette and Miller (2009) and predicated on a warming trend.

4. Both plots cut off prior to the recent UoC and RomanM plots indicating a post-2009 decline in sea level.
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Slide 232
Combined Satellite Observations

Notes

1. The graph depicts a summary of satellite-based (altimetric) determinations of sea level change between 1993 and 2010.
2. Three of the six satellites are no longer operational: Topex/Poseidon (retired on 18.01.2006); ERS-2 (retired on 04.07.2011), and GFO (failed on 30.09.1996).
3. Source: Sea Level CCI Newsletter – Issue 1 dated 10 November 2010. http://www.esa-sealevel-cci.pdf
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Slide 232a
Envisat Observations

Notes

4. The graph constitutes observations by the Envisat – which indicate a reduction in sea level commencing in late-2010. The graph reflects the removal of the seasonal signal and a glacial isostatic adjustment has been applied.
5. Source: www.aviso.oceanobs.com/.../products-images 29 July 2011.
6. Note that the results from the Envisat are markedly "flatter" (slope = 0.976mm/yr) than those for all six altimetric satellites (slope = 3.13mm/yr).
7. Note also the recent and rapid drop in sea level post late-2010 as recorded by Envisat. This suggests that water is being locked away (again) in the earth's expanding land-based ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica).
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Slide 233
Rising Sea Levels – True or False?


  • South Pacific nation of Tuvalu comprises 9 low reef islands and a number of smaller atolls


  • Subject of claims that these islands and atolls are threatened by rising sea levels (a consequence of AGW)


  • A 2010 study of 27 atoll islands in Tuvalu indicated that 43% were stable in area and 43% were actually increasing in area
     

Notes

1. Webb, A.P., Kench, P.S., 2010. The dynamic response of reef islands to sea level rise: evidence from multi-decadal analysis of island change in the Central Pacific. Global & Planetary Change, Vol. 71, Issues 4 & 5. Published on line on 21.05.2010.

2. Decreased area was observed in four of the 27 atoll islands examined. However, the decline in land area was not due to rising sea level, but, rather, erosion.

3. See also: Xue, C., 1996. Coastal Erosion and Management of Amatuku Island, Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu. SOPAC Technical Report 34.

4. Funafuti – Tuvalu's main atoll had increased in area by 28.3% between 1943 and 1984 (as revealed by comparison of aerial photographs for these two years.)

5. Update: Tuvalu sea levels STILL falling. December 04, 2009. Ice Age Now.
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Slide 234
Recent Dynamic Changes in Sea Level – Japan

Notes

1. Recent determinations of sea level in Japan have fluctuated with the passage of time.

2. In particular, note the rapid drop between 1950-1965 and 1973-1984, which overlapped with a period of declining global average temperature (between the late 1930s and the mid to late-1970s. This suggests that sea level changes in response to global temperature change – with a lag of approximately 10 years.

3. Source: Hayashibara, H., 2009. National Report of Japan. Published by Japan Meteorological Agency.
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Slide 235
Sea Level Change – SW Pacific Islands
  

Notes

1. The University of Adelaide studied sea level changes of 12 SW Pacific Islands (including Fiji, Vanuatu, Tonga, Cook Islands, Samoa, Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Nauru, Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and the Federated States of Micronesia) between 1992 and 2008. The study indicated relatively stable sea levels.

2. The research programme was subsequently abandoned when it did not confirm the theory of catastrophic sea level rise.

3. Source: Ollier, C., 2009. Sea Level in the SouthWest Pacific is stable. New Concepts in Global Tectonics Newsletter, No. 51, June 2009.
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Slide 236
Global Mean Sea Level Change – the Final Word

Notes

1. Source: University of Colorado, Boulder. Update to April 2011.

2. See also: Watts, A., 2011. NASA notes sea level is falling in press release, but calls it a "Pothole on Road to Higher Seas". WUWT 24.08.2011.

3. In the latter article, NASA conceded that Global Mean Sea Level dropped 6mm during 2010. This decline took place in spite of the fact that 2010 commenced with a prevailing El Niño (not La Niña) condition. The downward trend has continued through the first four months of 2011, as indicated in the above graph.
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Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique?

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

You are viewing Part 6
Glacial Retreat? 210..215      • Polar Bears & Walruses 216..222      • Rising Sea Levels? 223..236

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

Go to Part 8 296..360      • What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide • The "Precautionary Principle" • Summary • Postscripts

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11-01-2012 07:36:28 043726 //v6