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Modelling of
Anthropogenic Global Warming & the
Corruption of Modern Science

Part 8 of 8






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Slide 296
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


  • As population increases, so too does the amount of CO2 exhaled by humans and other forms of life.


  • As population and standards of living increase, so too does the demand for fossil fuels.


  • Advocates of AGW argue that CO2 is a major contributor to global warming.


  • As one of the Earth's important greenhouse gases, it has the potential to influence climate and surface temperatures.
Question:
To what degree does CO2 contribute to the Earth's "greenhouse effect" and long-term changes in climate?
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Slide 297
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?
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Slide 298
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


  • The increase in atmospheric CO2 is well established.


  • The trendline – which is known as the "Keeling Curve" – derives from studies primarily at the top of Mauna Loa volcano, on the island of Hawaii – the largest of the Hawaiian islands.


  • These observations date back to 1958, and the Mauna Loa trendline is paralleled at many other locations around the world.


  • Given that the upward increase in CO2 production is observed at numerous locations around the globe, including locations remote to urban centres, the CO2 increase is real. However, we have to qualify this in at least several respects.
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Slide 299
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?
  

Notes

1. Note the downwards perturbation in the first half of 2008 and the annual fluctuations – which make little sense in respect of the AGW context (given that the peaks and troughs occur about a month after the autumnal equinox and winter solstice (Southern Hemisphere) and the spring equinox and summer solstice (Northern Hemisphere).

2. Source: Mauna Loa is a Volcano. – http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2006/03/mauna-loa-volcano.php
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300..301
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


  • CO2 absorbs some of the reflected infrared radiation (heat) and re-radiates it towards the earth.


  • As such, it constitutes a greenhouse gas (along with water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone etc.)


  • If we didn't have these greenhouse gases, the earth would be 30° to 35°C cooler than at present – a more hostile environment


  • Carbon dioxide levels have been much higher in the past
Question:        Is CO2 the primary contributor to the Earth's "greenhouse effect"?
Answer:          Definitely not. Menu

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302..303
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?
  • Composition of the earth's atmosphere
  • • Nitrogen or N2 (78.08%)
    • Oxygen or O2 (20.95%)
    • Argon (0.93%)
    • Greenhouse gases (0.04%)
    • Other trace gases, e.g. Neon,
       Helium, Krypton (negligible ~0.002%)
  • Greenhouse Gases comprise:
  • • Carbon Dioxide or CO2 (0.039%)
    • Methane or CH4 (0.00018%)
    • Nitrous Oxide or N2O (0.00003%)
    • Ozone or O3 (variable from 0.00000% to 0.000007%)
  • Percentages applicable to the year 2008 and a dry atmosphere (i.e., excluding water vapour)
     
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Slide 304
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?
    

Notes

1. Note that both graphs exclude water vapour.

2. Gas contributions in the second graph are derived from the first – factoring in the pre-industrial baseline, natural (non-anthropogenic) additions and man-made (anthropogenic) additions for each gas and then adjusted in accordance with their Global Warming Potential (GWP) multiplier, which reflects the relative warming impact of the different gases relative to CO2.
The multipliers are as follows: CO2 (1); Methane or CH4 (21) and Nitrous Oxide or N2O (310) respectively.
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Slide 305
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


  • The earth's atmosphere also contains water vapour (H2O) – which also constitutes an invisible greenhouse gas


  • Its presence is best felt when we experience high humidity


  • Water vapour is far more important to the Earth's "greenhouse effect" than carbon dioxide, since it has a greater propensity to absorb radiated heat from the earth's surface


  • Contribution to Earth's "greenhouse effect" (i.e., in the absorption of re-radiated heat) is as follows:
  • • Water vapour (approx. 95.000%);
    • Carbon dioxide (approx. 3.618%), and
    • Other greenhouse gases (approx. 1.382%)

Notes

1. Hieb, M., 2010. Water Vapour Rules the Greenhouse System. Online Geocraft Publication. January 10, 2003.

2. Source: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
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Slide 306

Notes

1. If, however, we include water vapour, the percentages of the gases comprising the earth's atmosphere change proportionately.

2. Because CO2 comprises a relatively small, but steadily increasing, percentage in a "dry" atmosphere compared with the primary gases – Nitrogen, Oxygen and Argon – it remains essentially unchanged when water vapour is added.

3. Source: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/PageMill_Images/images253b.gif
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307..308
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?
Question:
What percentage of atmospheric CO2 is due to human activity?
Answer:
According to Mohr (2005), approx. 3.0% of all naturally occurring emissions of CO2 – a very small proportion indeed. More recent assessments suggest a slightly higher figure – of the order of 3.2%.

Notes

1. Mohr, N., 2005. A New Global Warming Strategy. An EarthSave International Report dated August 2005.
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Slide 309
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?

  • Carbon dioxide (CO2) is a relatively rare trace gas.


  • Currently CO2 comprises approximately 0.039% by volume of the earth's atmosphere or 389ppm by volume.


  • 96.4% of carbon dioxide is produced naturally (e.g., out-gassing from volcanic vents or during volcanic eruptions, respiration of animals, natural decay of living things, natural combustion events etc.) – and therefore non-anthropogenic in nature.


  • The contribution of man-made CO2 to the Earth's "greenhouse effect" is of the order of 0.119% (2010) when water vapour is included in the regime of greenhouse gases.


  • The amount man is producing as a proportion of total volume of the earth's atmosphere is therefore 0.0019% or 19ppm by volume.

Notes

1. Mohr suggests that 97% of CO2 is naturally produced.

2. Given that the contribution of man-made and natural CO2 to the Earth's "greenhouse effect" is of the order of 3.618%, a slightly higher figure of 3.225% for man-made CO2 would result in a contribution of 0.117% (for 2003).
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Slide 310
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?
    

Notes

1. Hieb, M., 2003. Water Vapour Rules the Greenhouse System. Online Geocraft Publication. January 10, 2003.

2. Source: http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
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Slide 311
The Carbon Inventory — Sources and Sinks


Notes

1. Ocean Degassing (Source + Sink)
2. Photosynthesis by plants and humans (sink)
3. Conversion of CO2 into carbohydrates by vegetation including trees, plants and grasses as part of photosynthesis (sink)

4. Sub-oceanic degassing, e.g., underwater volcanos (source)
5. Weathering of limestone (source)
6. Oxidation of surface coal and peat bogs (source)

7. Surface volcano venting during eruption or through fissures (source)
8. Absorption during precipitation (sink)
9. Soil respiration (source)

10. Source: http://www.biomind.de/realCO2/. Downloaded May 06, 2010.
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Slide 312
Sources: Human-Generated CO2:
  • Each human produces on average 1.27kg (2.8lbs) of CO2 each day or 464kg per year through respiration;

  • Assuming a human population of 6.8 billion (mid-2009), this results in 3.15 billion tonnes (i.e., 3.15 gigatonnes or 3.15 x 109 tonnes) of CO2 per year through respiration;

  • Total CO2 emissions caused by power generation, burning of fossil fuels, transportation and cement production is approx. 8.7 billion tonnes in a single year (2008);

  • Changes in land use (e.g., slash and burn practices and deforestation in tropical regions) add another 1.5 billion tonnes of CO2 per year;

  • Therefore, respiration is responsible for only 10.9% of the total annual human-produced CO2

Notes

1. Roper, D.L., 2006. World Population and Global Warming. Undated and downloaded on May 18, 2010.

2. Source: http://www.roperd.com/science/PopulationGlobalWarming.htm

3. The Human Perturbation of the Carbon Cycle. Published by UNESCO (Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences), Scientific Committee on problems of the Environment (SCOPE) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and dated November 2009.
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Slide 313
Other Naturally Occurring Sources of CO2:
  • Oceans, when 'warm', release CO2 into the atmosphere;

  • Respiration by domestic animals (livestock/cattle) is responsible for a further 8.9 billion tonnes per annum;

  • Respiration by other forms of wildlife – global figure not quantified;

  • Bushfires (natural, but excluding 'slash and burn' practices of humans) – global figure indeterminable due to annual variability;

  • Surface volcanos – release between 130 and 230 million tonnes per annum, and

  • Underwater volcanos – release between 66 and 97 million tonnes per annum into the oceans.
Therefore, the amount of CO2 produced by all human activity is a very small proportion of the total CO2 generated worldwide

Notes

1. Goodland, R., Anhang, J., 2009. Livestock and Climate Change. Nov/Dec Issue of World Watch. Published by WorldWatch Institute.

2. Article cites a figure of 8.76 billion imperial tons per annum for livestock CO2 production, which equates to 8.9 billion metric tonnes.

3. Previous estimates by the United Nations suggested that livestock contributed 18% of the CO2 inventory.
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Slide 314
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


Some critical observations regarding CO2:

  • Forest growth accelerates as CO2 content rises;


  • Likewise, CO2 is food for phytoplankton;


  • Essential for growth of coral polyp exoskeletons;


  • Flow of CO2 is both into and out of the Earth's oceans
  • 78 to 92.4 billion tonnes per annum is absorbed (range)
    76 to 90.8 billion tonnes per annum is released through evaporation
    • Net differences in the air-sea gas exchange range from
       1.6 to 3.2 billion tonnes per annum, with a mean value
       centred around 2.3 gigatonnes of CO2/year (in favour of ocean sink)
    but highly variable over time, and

  • Oceans in the tropics tend to release CO2 whilst those near the poles act as CO2 "sinks"
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Slide 314a
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?



Notes

1. McMahon, S.M., Parker, G.G. and Miller, D.R., 2010. Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA), 10.1073/pnas.0912376107.

2. See also: Climate Change Reconsidered website summary dated May 07, 2010.

3. It had previously been estimated that the net uptake of CO2 by plants was of the order of 60 billion tonnes per year – double that produced by humans through respiration and the burning of fossil fuels.
Source: http://www.ghgonline.org/co2sinkplants.htm

4. The CO2 gas exchange figures between the sea and ocean (78 and 76) are based on data for 2000-2005, as determined by the University of Heidelberg.

5. Refer: Watts, A., 2010. New ground truth: soil microbe negative feedback. WUWT dated April 28, 2010.

6. The figures of 92.4 and 90.8 gigatonnes of CO2 per annum were based on the years 1992-1997 and sourced from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre (CDIAC).

7. Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/graphics/c_cycle.htm
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Slide 315
view large

Notes

1. Quirk, T., 2009. Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide. Energy & Environment, Vol. 20, Nos. 1-2 (Jan-Feb 2009), pp. 103-119.

2. The above article was written by an Australian research physicist, Dr. Tom Quirk, in the peer-reviewed journal, Energy & Environment.

3. See also: Marohasy, J., 2009. The Available Evidence Does Not Support Fossil Fuels as the Source of Increasing Concentrations of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (Part 1). Published on line on March 24 2009 at WUWT and on March 25, 2009 at http://jennifermarohasy.com/blog/2009/03/the-available-evidence-does-not-support-fossil-fuel...

4. See also: Avery. D.T., 2009. Hemispheric Timing Shows Oceans are Source of CO2? Published on line at AmericanDaily website and dated 31 March, 2009.
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Slide 316
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


Total CO2 emissions removed from the Earth's atmosphere to carbon sinks:

  • 123 billion tonnes of CO2 by the plant life annually (Beer et al);
  • • 34% of human-generated CO2 absorbed during photosynthesis
       in tropical rainforests;
    • Plants and grasses in Savannah regions remove up to 26% of CO2;
  • Manufacturing processes (e.g., timber products, plastics, chemicals etc.) lock away a further unknown % of CO2


  • The soils (lithic layers) directly absorb a further unknown % of CO2


  • Unknown % of CO2 removed to landfill sites


  • 30-48% is currently absorbed by the oceans - but could be as high as 85% where sources are coastal


  • Coral polyps and formation of coral reefs – unknown % of CO2
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Slide 316a
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?



Notes

1. Beer, C., Reichstein, M., Tomelleri, E., Ciais, P., Jung, M, Carvalhais, N., R”denbeck, M., Arain, M.A., Baldocchi, D., Bonan, G.B., Bondeau, A., Cescatti, A., Laslopp, G., Lindroth, A., Lomas, M., Luyssaert, S., Margolis, H., Oleson, K.W., Roupsard, O., Veenendaal, E., Viovy, N., Williams, C., Woodward, F.I., and Papale, D., 2010. Terrestrial Gross Carbon Dioxide Uptake: Global Distribution and Covariation with Climate. Science Express online, July 5, 2010.
Source: http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1184984

2. See also: Gosselin, P., 2010. CO2 field experiment likely to cause "do-over" for climate models. Published July 05, 2010. WUWT.

3. See also: A new balance for the global carbon balance. Max Plank Society press release dated July 06, 2010. Downloaded from unfinished web address
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317..318
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


This leaves a net amount of CO2 to build-up in the earth's atmosphere, of ?? Gigatonnes of CO2 per annum

Question:
Is the build-up of atmospheric CO2 due to man's activities (e.g., the burning of fossil fuels) or other causes (e.g., ocean temperature increases)?


  • Most man-made CO2 originates in the Northern Hemisphere – especially the temperate regions of North America, Southern Europe and, increasingly, in Central and SE Asia


  • Absence of a time-lag in the dispersion of CO2 from the Northern to Southern Hemisphere points to a non-anthropogenic explanation for the recent rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration


  • Imbalance causally linked to changes in oceanic temperature – especially in regions close to the equator and the tropics and increasing frequency of El Niño events and the longer-term Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
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Slide 319

Notes

1. D'Aleo, J., 2009. Volcanoes and CO2 and Global Temperature. Published on line on November 16, 2009 at http://eiwnetwork.com/2009/11/16/volcanoes-and-co2-and-globa-temperature/
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Slide 320
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?

  • The impact increasing CO2 concentration has on temperature


  • The force on the temperature decreases logarithmically with rising CO2 concentration

Notes

1. Eschenbach, W., 2006. Climate Audit.

2. Archibald, D., 2010. The Logarithmic Effect of Carbon Dioxide. March 08, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 321
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?

  • A doubling of CO2 would have very little impact in the future on global temperatures


  • Higher levels in the past did not harm humanity

Notes

1. Archibald, D., 2010. The Logarithmic Effect of Carbon Dioxide. March 08, 2010. WUWT.
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Slide 322
  • CO2 an integral part of the Earth's carbon cycle

  • CO2 is plant food – plants convert CO2 into carbohydrates through photosynthesis

  • Coral polyps remove CO2 from seawater to form their exoskeletons – which, upon death, form coral reefs
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Slide 322a
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?



Notes

1. Benefits of Trees in Urban Areas. Published on line at the Colorado Trees website.

2. This article reviews the sequestration ability of urban forests to remove atmospheric CO2. The article is undated and was downloaded on May 21, 2010.

3. Steward, H.L., 2009. Plants need more CO2, not less. Published on line November 05, 2009.

4. Source: http://truth11.com/2009/11/05/plants-need-more-cO2-not-less/

5. Cook-Anderson, G., 2009. Where does the CO2 go? The Mystery of the Missing Sinks. Published online and dated February 02, 2009.

6. Source: http://www.scientificblogging.com/news_releases/where_does_co2_go_mystery_missing_sinks.

7. Novak, G., 200? Global Dynamic of Carbon Dioxide Production. Undated and downloaded on July 09, 2010.

8. Source: http://nov55.com/glody.html

9. DuHamel, J., 2010. Wry Heat: Corals and Carbon Dioxide. http://tusconcitizen.com/wryheat/
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323..325
Consequences of Reducing Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


Question:        Are there any potential adverse consequences in reducing CO2 emissions?


Answer:          Yes, there are.


  • Plants shut down in concentrations of less than 150ppm


  • Vegetation provides food for humanity and animals
  • • Food crop yields will diminish in a CO2 deprived environment
    • Less grass for cattle (herbivorous animals)
    • Less food and meat for an increasing global population
    • Starvation would follow
    • Famines would become even more prevalent than they are today
  • Accelerated desertification of our planet
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326..327
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide (CO2)?


Question:

Discounting the respiration component of human produced CO2, how much of atmospheric CO2 is due to the burning of fossil fuels?


Answer:

Difficult to quantify for the following reasons:


  • Historically, oceanic temperature rises have preceded the release of CO2 (i.e., temperature increase is the catalyst for release of oceanic CO2)


  • Therefore, recent increases in CO2 could be due to warming oceans and more El Niño events (in addition to population increase and the burning of fossil fuels)


  • Mauna Loa effect – measurements taken in the Pacific Ocean (therefore essentially "tropical" and aided by volcanic heat)
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Slide 328
Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide (CO2)


  • Enriched levels of CO2 enhance plant growth


  • Increased crop yields a fundamental necessity if we are to feed an ever increasing human population


  • Fossil fuels are the way out of poverty for both under-developed and developing nations, as they provide vital fuel (for transport) and a cheap source of electricity:
  • • Coal-fired production of electricity very efficient
    • On cost basis, the only alternative is nuclear power generation
       (which carries with it significantly higher risks)
    • Modern coal-fired power stations highly efficient in CO2 extraction
  • The use of fossil fuels is an effective means of generating heat during winter and sustained periods of cold – especially in higher latitudes of the earth

Notes

1. Cardwell, T.L., 2009. Letter to the Editor in Rockhampton's The Morning Bulletin dated December 22, 2009.

2. Mr. Cardwell worked for the NSW Electricity Commission for 25 years – commissioning and operating its various power stations.
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Slide 329
Modelling of Anthropogenic Global Warming
& the Corruption of Modern Science

The "Precautionary Principle"


  • The roots of the Precautionary Principle can be traced back to (Nazi) Germany – "Vorsorgeprinzip" – evolving out of the German socio-legal tradition in the 1930s


  • The "Precautionary Principle" has been used to great effect by environmentalists as a means of pushing the AGW agenda


  • The principle is, however, flawed, in that it offers only one possible way ahead; even when there is ample proof that there are better alternative explanations


  • Put simply, it is a tool of propagandists, when their arguments come under sustained attack


  • Let's illustrate ...
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Slide 330
The "Precautionary Principle"


  • The burden of proof is placed on those opposing the so-called consensus view – to disprove the theory


  • AGW is on very shaky grounds


  • Turning the tables on AGW – evidence for global cooling


  • The consequences of implementing Cap-and-Trade or Emissions Trading Schemes:
  • • The poorer nations lose out – no access to cost-effective electricity
    • The plants lose out – the risk of accelerated desertification
    • A select few will get very wealthy at everybody else's expense
  • What if the AGW science is wrong and we're going into a period of global cooling?

Notes

1. It is interesting that the USSR is gearing up for an impending and protracted period of cooler climatic conditions; hence, its intervention in the affairs of former states around the Black and Caspian Sea oil and natural gas supplies.

2. The USA and most West European countries are blinded to the impending global minimum as a consequence of their belief in AGW.
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331..332
The "Precautionary Principle"


Question:

    Is there any firm evidence for an imminent cooling of the earth?


Answer:

    Yes. There is a mounting body of evidence to suggest that we are going into another cooling phase in the earth's climatic history – possibly akin to the Dalton Minimum, or worse, another Maunder Minimum

    Lets look at one such evidence ...





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Slide 333
The "Precautionary Principle"

The increasing incidence and persistence of jet aircraft contrails
points to a dramatic cooling of the earth's middle troposphere


Notes

1. Satellite view of the SE of the United States, with aircraft contrails (white streaks) evident in the photo.

2. Source: Photo taken from NASA's Earth Observatory on January 29, 2011.
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Slide 334

Notes

1. As surface temperatures on the earth decline in the wake of declining sunspot activity and increased low level cloud formation, so too do temperatures in the earth's troposphere, which extends approximately 18 kilometres above the earth's surface.

2. Contrails are created by jet aircraft when flying above 25,000 feet (7,600 metres) in altitude, where temperatures of -30°C are experienced.

3. Commercial jet aircraft can fly at altitudes up to 45,000 feet (or 13,700 metres) and the Concorde to 50,000 feet (15,200 metres).

4. Contrails are becoming more prevalent as the earth's upper troposphere cools in response to global cooling. Likewise, the duration of contrails is becoming prolonged as the earth's troposphere cools.
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Slide 335
The "Precautionary Principle"


  • The call to "hide the decline" points to a recent cooling of the earth post-1998


  • Removal of 'cooler' weather stations from CRU, GISS and GHCN calculations of Mean Global Temperature could push the decline back still further – to the late-1980s or even earlier


  • 2008-09 and 2009-10 winters in the Northern Hemisphere have been two of the worst on record


  • Glaciers in both hemispheres are once again advancing


  • The Arctic ice sheet is rapidly returning to 'normal'


  • Greenland's ice sheet is thickening


  • Antarctic temperatures are dropping and sea ice extent is increasing
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Slide 336

  • Geomagnetic and sunspot activity is on the decline. Concerns are being expressed regarding the possibility that sunspots may disappear by 2015 – ushering in another 'little ice age'. Those expressing concerns include:
  • Dr. Fred Goldberg – noted Swedish climatologist

  • Dr. Habibullo Abdussamatov – head of space research at the Pulkova Astronomical Observatory in St Petersburg, Russia

  • Dr. Oleg Pokrovsky – Russia's Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory

  • Dr. Henrik Svensmark – Professor of Atmospheric Physics at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) in Copenhagen

  • Dr. Cees de Jager – Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research and former head of Utrecht University Observatory

Notes

1. Livingston, W., Penn, M., 2005. Sunspots may disappear by 2015. Submitted to the American journal Science for publication but rejected; reflecting the sort of censorship that is currently going on in the realm of issues relevant to climatology. The co-authors worked at the National Solar Observatory in Tucson, Arizona, and their research had been undertaken as part of a cooperative agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF).

2. Watts, A., 2010. Solar geomagnetic index reaches unprecedented low – only zero could be lower – in a month when sunspots became more active. January 07, 2010. WUWT.

3. Watts, A., 2009. Solar geomagnetic activity is at an all time low – what does this mean for climate? December 09, 2009. WUWT.

4. Duhau, S., de Jager, C., 2010. The Forthcoming Grand Minimum of Solar Activity. Journal of Cosmology, 8:1983-1999.

5. Clark, Stuart, 2010. Absence of sunspots make scientists wonder if they're seeing a calm before a storm of energy. Washington Post, June 21, 2010.

6. Clark, S., 2010. New Scientist, June 22, 2010.
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Slide 337
The "Precautionary Principle"

Notes

1. Easterbrook, D., 2010. The Looming Threat of Global Cooling – Geological Evidence for Prolonged Cooling Ahead and Its Impacts. Fourth International Conference on Climate Change. May 16-18, 2010. Chicago, Illinois.

2. See also: The Looming Threat of Global Cooling. http://www.iceagenow.com/Looming_Threat_of_Global_Cooling.htm. Dated May 23, 2010.
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Slide 338
Summing Up


  • Contrary to the predictions of the IPCC and its four Assessment Report working groups:
  • • Mean global temperature has been declining since (at least) 1996;

    • Current CO2 levels are less than they were during the first half of 19th Century;

    • Arctic sea ice extent and volume has been dramatically increasing since 2007;

    • Antarctic temperatures have been dropping and extent of sea ice increasing;

    • Most Northern Hemisphere and virtually all Southern Hemisphere glaciers
    are now growing;

    • Polar bear populations are increasing, and

    • Global sea levels are falling.
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Slide 339
Summing Up


  • The evidence for "global warming" between the mid-1960s and 1998 has been manufactured by systematically deleting cooler stations across the globe and biasing the determination of mean global temperature with predominantly warmer weather station data


  • To this end, the evidence for "global warming" largely reflects UHI Effect, which correlates to increased urbanisation of the continental land masses and population increase – not increased CO2 emission


  • Professors Michael Mann, Phillip Jones, James Hansen and many of their colleagues are guilty of scientific fraud


  • There is no scientific justification for imposing Cap-and-Trade or Emissions Trading Schemes
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Slide 340
Modelling of Anthropogenic Global Warming
& the Corruption of Modern Science

End of Presentation

( postscripts follow below )

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Slide 341
Postscript to Presentation — "Satellitegate"


  • Revelations concerning the corruption of data from NASA and NOAA satellites


  • News broke on August 8, 2010 via a science blog by Suzanne Bohan in the Valley Times and Contra Costa Times newspapers


  • Satellite sensor degradation has led to systemic and corrupt (exaggerated) "warming" results from specific satellites (e.g., NOAA-16, NPOESS-2 and 4, GOES-R, Landsat 7)


  • Distortion of mean temperatures for the NE United States as a result of the degraded data sets could be as high as 10° to 15°F


  • Problems compounded by the Obama administration's refusal to fund corrective measures or replacement sensors on future satellites


  • MSM response to date – virtually nil
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Slide 342
Postscript to Presentation — "Satellitegate"

  • The error in readings for July 4, 2010 related to the northern end of Lake Michigan


  • At 9:59am the NOAA-16 satellite produced surface readings ranging from an acceptable figure of 51.3 °F (and 40.6 °F near Petoskey) up to a maximum of 604.0 °F (south of Bailey's Harbor, see map below)


  • The Lake's waters would boil away at 212 °F (100 °C)


  • Later the same day (6:38pm) another set of errant surface temperatures was generated by the NOAA-16 satellite – this time yielding anomalously low values for sections of the lake


  • Other anomalies exist for the month of June as well
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Slide 343
Postscript to Presentation — "Satellitegate"

view large

July 4, 2010 - 9:59 EDT
Showing temperatures from 40.6° to 604.0°F


view large

July 4, 2007 - 18:38 EDT
Compare readings from 3 yrs earlier


Notes

1. Source: NOAA/GLERL CoastWatch Program. Data assembled by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and Michigan State University (MSU).
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Slide 344
Postscript to Presentation — "Satellitegate"


  • It is unknown how long the NOAA-16 and other NASA satellites have been generating anomalous data sets


  • NASA has reported a succession of record warm temperatures in recent years based on such satellite readings, which may have been contaminated by faulty measuring devices
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Slide 345
Postscript 2 to Presentation
Eschatological Significance of Increased Cloud Cover



Ezek. 30:3 states "For the day is near, even the day of the Lord is near; It will be a day of clouds, a time of doom for the nations."


Acts 1:11 states "... and they [two angels] also said, Men of Galilee, why do you stand looking into the sky? This Jesus, who has been taken up from you into heaven, will come in just the same way as you have watched Him go into heaven."


Matt. 24:30 states "... and then the sign of the Son of Man will appear in the sky, and then all the tribes of the earth will mourn, and they will see the Son of Man coming on the clouds of the sky with power and great glory."

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Slide 346
Postscript 2 to Presentation
Eschatological Significance of Increased Cloud Cover
  

Notes

1. Low level clouds are becoming increasingly common – in line with decreased sunspot activity (as per Svensmark's theory of cloud formation and climate change).

2. Photos taken by the presenter (December 6, 2010).
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Slide 347
Postscript 2 to Presentation
Eschatological Significance of Increased Cloud Cover



1 Thess. 4:16-17 states "For the Lord will descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trumpet of God; and the dead in Christ shall rise first. Then we who are alive and remain [the church] shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air, and thus we shall always be with the Lord."


Rev. 1:7 states "Behold, He is coming with the clouds, and every eye will see Him, even those who pierced Him; and all the tribes of the earth will mourn over Him. ..."


Rev. 11:12 states "And they heard a loud voice from heaven saying, 'Come up here.' And they [the two slain witnesses] went up into heaven in the cloud, and their enemies beheld them."

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Slide 348
Postscript 3
State of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Notes

1. The state of the Greenland ice sheet is a key issue in the assessment of the AGW position.

2. Advocates of the AGW position have made much of the annual melting of the Greenland ice sheet – pointing to this as evidence of global warming.

3. The ice sheet occupies approximately 80% of the landmass of Greenland on average.
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Slide 349
Postscript 3
State of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Notes

1. Advocates of the AGW position argue that the Greenland Ice Sheet is melting at an alarming rate.

2. A complete (catastrophic) melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet would raise sea levels by 7 metres.
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350..351
Postscript 3
State of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Question:
Is the Greenland Ice Sheet experiencing catastrophic melting in response to Anthropogenic Global Warming?
Answer:
Definitely not
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Slide 352
         

Notes

1. The extent of the Greenland ice sheet is depicted in the image to the left. However, the edges of the ice sheet vary seasonally.
2. The underlying topography of Greenland is depicted in the centre image – revealing an inland basin.
3. The extent of the Greenland ice sheet is depicted in the image to the right. The contour map depicts the health of the Greenland ice sheet.

4. The ice sheet is the second largest body of ice in the world – 1.710 million km2 – second only to the Antarctic ice sheet.
5. The average thickness of the ice sheet is more than 2 kilometres and over 3 kilometres at its thickest point.
6. It is believed that the inland basin has been formed as a consequence of deformation of the underlying bedrock under the weight of the ice.
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Slide 353
Postscript 3
State of the Greenland Ice Sheet


The state (or "health") of the Greenland ice sheet is determined by:

  • The rate of accumulation (and subsequent compaction) of snow in the interior of Greenland;


  • The rate of seasonal melting along the margins of the ice sheet;


  • The lubrication of glaciers due to underlying melt water, and


  • The rate of calving of icebergs – a natural by-product of tidewater glaciers - into the surrounding ocean.
Deformation of the underlying strata of the island – due to the downward pressure exerted by the ice sheet – disguises both ice mass and volume.

Notes

1. When the rate of accumulation and compaction of snow exceeds the rate of seasonal melting, the ice sheet will increase in mass. Conversely, when the rate of accumulation is less than that of seasonal melt, the ice sheet will decrease in mass.
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Slide 354
Postscript 3
State of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Notes

1. Not surprisingly, melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet is greatest in the Northern Hemisphere's summer months – peaking in the month of July.

2. The southern regions of Greenland experience greater melt than those in the north – with greatest melt taking place below the Arctic Circle (< Lat. 66° 33' 44" N.)

3. The summer melt exposes the coastal margins of the island.

4. Source: Abdalati, W, Steffen, C., 1997. Snowmelt on the Greenland Ice Sheet as Derived from passive Microwave Satellite Data. Journal of Climate, vol. 10, issue 2 (February 1997), pp.165-175. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)101<0165:SOTGIS>2.0CO;2
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Slide 355
Greenland Ice Melt Index – 1978 to 2010

Notes

1. Melting Index Anomaly for the Greenland Ice Sheet (ref. Tedesco, et. al., 2011.)

2. In spite of the record melt in 2010, the index appears to be levelling out and, perhaps even starting to dip again after an upward trend from the mid-1970s.

3. The record melt in 2010 was due, in large part, to the unusually warm weather across Greenland in 2010 – a consequence of a persistent high pressure system which prevailed between May and August.

4. Source: Tedesco, M., Fettweis, X., Van den Broeke, M.R., Van de Wal, W.S.R., Smeets, C.J.P.P., Van der Berg, W.J., Serreze, M.C., and Box, J.E., 2011. The role of albedo and accumulation in the 2010 melting record of Greenland. Environ. Res. Lett. 6 (2011):014005 (6pp). Ref. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/014005.
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Slide 356

Notes

1. A 225-year reconstruction of Greenland ice melt by Frauenfeld et al (2011) revealed some interesting facts.

2. During the last decade Greenland ice melt maxed out in 2007; coincidentally, the same year that Arctic sea ice plummeted to a low. This suggests a correlation with the spike increase in global temperatures during the same year.

3. On a decadal scale, there have been several brief periods in which Greenland's summer ice melt exceeded that for the most recent decade – notably the mid-1930s and the early 1950s.

4. Source: Frauenfeld, O.W., P.C. Knappenberger, and P.J. Michaels, 2011. A reconstruction of annual Greenland ice melt extent, 1785-2009. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), vol. 116, D08104, doi:10.1029/2010JD014918. Refer: Attempts to Box Us Out. See also: Liljegren, L., 2011. Published on line at: The Blackboard – Where Climate Talk Gets Hot! Will 2010 Melt Data Change Conclusions of FMK2011?
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Slide 357


Notes

1. Comparison of the Ice Extent Index (anomaly graph, bottom) for Greenland between 1785 and 2009 compared against the U.S. Temperature anomaly for the period 1880 through to 1998 (top). — (horizontal scales aligned)

2. Note that the graph for the US Temperature anomaly is that published by GISS prior to 2000; before the graph was manipulated to better reflect the Mann "Hockey Stick." The cut-off point for the US Temperature anomaly was 1998; which coincided with the big El Niño event.
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Slide 358
Postscript 3
State of the Greenland Ice Sheet
    

Notes

1. In summer the extremities of the Greenland ice sheet are subject to melting as temperatures rise. Surface cracking provides basins into which the melt waters gravitate. With the onset of the next winter, however, these "lakes" refreeze, becoming a solid mass once again.

2. It has been argued that these lakes of melt water can hasten ice sheet flow by lubricating the underside of the ice sheet.
3. Ref. Lakes of Meltwater Can Crack Greenland's Ice and Contribute to Faster Ice Sheet Flow. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Published April 17 2008.
4. However, this argument has recently been shown to be false and that "... above a certain threshold, the slipping began to slow."
5. Carrington, D., 2011. Greenland ice sheet is safer than scientists previously thought. Guardian dated 26 January 2011.

7. Refers to: Aud Venke Sundal, Andrew Shepherd, Peter Nienow, Edward Hanna, Steven Palmer & Philippe Huybrechts, 2011. Melt-induced speed-up of Greenland ice sheet offset by efficient subglacial drainage. Nature, vol. 469, issue 7331, pp.521-524. Dated 27 January 2011.
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Slide 359
Greenland West Coast – Summer Melt June 2001, 2002 & 2003 (left) cf. July 2011 (right)
    

Notes

1. Source: June 2001 to June 2003 images – NASA Earth Observatory.

3. Source: July 2011 image – Google Earth, and dated 11 July 2011.

4. Note the recovery in quality of the ice and the fact that the latter photo was taken a month later – at maximum melt for the Greenland ice sheet.
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Slide 360
Postscript 3 – Greenland Temperature Record

9500 BC to 1900 AD       —       2000 BC to 2008 AD
  

Notes

1. The Greenland ice-core record reveals a significant 5°C rise in temperature post the end of the so-called Pleistocene (post-Flood) Ice Age, followed by a succession of fluctuations (left graph).
2. Recent changes in temperature reveal the existence of the Little Ice Age, preceded by the Medieval Warming Period (right graph). Note also the earlier Roman Warming Period and several earlier "warming" spikes.

3. Graphs sourced from: Moore , R.K., 2010. Climate Science: Observations versus Models. Published on line on January 6, 2010 at: globalresearch.ca/PrintArticle.php?article=16865
4. Data source for the plots derives from NOAA's Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP2) Ice Core metadata for Central Greenland.

6. Baseline is set at the year 1900 AD (for purposes of comparison).
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Go to Part 1 2..66      • A Biblical View of Post-Flood Climate History • The Große Lüge or the 'Big Lie' • AGW – A Scientific Consensus or Not? • Politics and the IPCC • The Global Warming "Petition Project" (2008) • A Political Agenda – The Club of Rome • Convenient Fiction • Determining Global Mean Temperature – Climategate • The Science behind the Global Warming Debate – Scientists Behaving Badly • The Notorious "Hockey-Stick" Graph • Denial of the Historic Mediaeval Warming Period • Dampening of Severity of the "Little Ice Age"

Go to Part 2 67..93      • The Disappearing Weather Station Data Sets

Go to Part 3 94..141a      • Impact of "Urban Heat Island" Effect • Skewing the Results • Siting and Quality of Weather Stations • Weighting of Land & Oceanic Grid Temperatures • Hiding the Recent Decline in Mean Temperature • Is Increased CO2 Concentration Unique?

Go to Part 4 142..184a      • Recent Changes in Arctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 5 185..209a      • Recent Changes in Antarctic Sea Ice & Temperatures

Go to Part 6 210..236      • Glacial Retreat? • Polar Bears & Walruses • Rising Sea Levels?

Go to Part 7 237..293      • Errant Spikes in METAR Temperature Data Sets • Widening Gap between Lower Tropospheric and Surface-Based Temperature Trends • Record Low Winter Temperatures • Solar Activity and Climate Change • Cosmic Ray Induced Climate Change • Other Factors influencing Recent Climate Change

You are viewing Part 8
What's So Bad About Carbon Dioxide? 296..327      • Benefits of Enriched Carbon Dioxide 328
The "Precautionary Principle" 329..337      • Summary 338..339      • Postscripts 341..360

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11-01-2012 07:36:38 099594 //v6